Why hasn't the lively Chinese New Year theme gained popularity? How will the US tariff adjustments impact the A-shares? Frontline insights from fund companies

The A-share market welcomed its first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index surged with high volume, marking a “good start,” but a subtle contrast to the lively scenes during the holiday, such as the “Cyber Spring Festival Gala” and travel consumption, is the significant cooling of some popular themes like film and television, artificial intelligence, computing power, and robotics, which were once highly anticipated.

On February 24, film and television ETFs fell nearly 8%, with industry-themed ETFs such as gaming, Hong Kong internet, media, AI, and cloud computing leading declines. Market humorously commented, “Teachers who praised robots, computing power, and AI during the Spring Festival are now silent; the teachers who praised movies have left the group.”

Meanwhile, overseas markets during the holiday were not calm: the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the previous reciprocal tariffs were illegal. The Trump administration quickly “repackaged” and introduced new tariffs, signaling a renewed escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts.

Against the backdrop of multiple internal and external factors, how will the market perform after the holiday? Where are the main investment themes? Several public fund institutions have provided immediate analysis and post-market strategy recommendations.

On the first day after the Spring Festival, how do fund companies view the cooling of popular themes?

On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, the three major indices all closed higher, but sector performance was highly differentiated. Cyclical sectors such as cultivated diamonds, phosphate chemicals, and oil and gas exploration led gains, while previously popular AI application themes like DeepSeek and Kimi declined sharply. Some hot themes experienced divergence or even retracement. The “Spring Festival blockbusters” concept, which was highly discussed online, did not ignite the market as expected. Why did the lively themes during the Spring Festival fade?

This divergence reflects the market’s reallocation of funds under multiple influences. “The spring turbulence of 2026 has partly shifted to January; the growth style before the holiday has been largely realized. Coupled with regulatory cooling measures and significant ETF outflows, the overall index in February is expected to fluctuate.” said Golden Eagle Fund.

This suggests that some profit-taking occurred after the holiday, putting short-term pressure on tech themes.

Deeper reasons include risk aversion and defensive positioning of funds. Some fund companies believe that although domestic positive factors have accumulated, overseas macro uncertainties and geopolitical risks during the holiday period significantly suppressed overall risk appetite. Global funds tend to favor safe-haven assets, which to some extent diverted capital from high-risk themes in the stock market.

Additionally, Guotai Fund reviewed the market patterns after the Spring Festival, noting that within 5, 10, and 20 trading days post-holiday, the probability of market gains gradually increased, with a style favoring “small and medium caps over large caps, growth outperforming.” While long-term growth remains dominant, short-term leadership often depends on event-driven catalysts. During the holiday, progress in overseas large models, changes in U.S. tariffs, and U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts became new catalysts, shifting market focus from “Spring Festival excitement” to “geopolitical conflicts” and “policy games.” As a result, sectors like non-ferrous metals and oil and gas performed notably on the first day after the holiday.

In summary, the so-called “Spring Festival themes cooling” is essentially a normal style rebalancing and risk preference downgrade after the previous surge in tech stocks, amid rising overseas uncertainties. Fund companies point out that funds have not exited the market but are shifting from pure theme speculation to more certain performance and defensive sectors.

Morgan Asset Management also reminds investors that, given the overall high valuations of tech stocks, short-term emotional fluctuations that lead to mispricing may present better entry opportunities.

What impact does the U.S. tariff restructuring have on the market?

During the Spring Festival holiday, tariff policies across the Pacific experienced dramatic swings. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that “reciprocal tariffs” were illegal. However, the White House quickly invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing an additional 15% tariff on imports globally for 150 days. This “new replaces old” drama will have what effects on global markets and the A-shares?

Morgan Asset Management interprets that the Supreme Court ruling, which declared the IEEPA tariffs illegal, likely limits the scope and impact of U.S. tariffs. This could help control U.S. inflation further and may even boost consumption in the short term due to some tax refunds. However, Huatai Fund remains cautious, noting that although Trump raised tariffs to 15%, Section 122 has time and rate limits, making it unlikely to form a long-term stable tariff basis. Short-term policy uncertainties still exist.

Jinying Fund believes that if the broad-spectrum tariffs of 10% are truly implemented and further escalated, they will have profound effects on export chains and global industrial restructuring. In this context, consumption sectors benefiting from domestic demand and policy support—such as automotive and home appliances—are relatively more defensive and offensive.

This tariff turmoil not only affects trade flows but also deeply impacts the dollar’s creditworthiness. Yongyin Fund points out that with the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve and rising deficit levels, the credit of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries is being eroded. Although the Supreme Court’s ruling negated the old tariffs, it also exposed the chaos and uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, which in turn accelerates the global “de-dollarization” trend. European countries like Denmark, Poland, and Sweden are selling U.S. Treasuries or increasing gold holdings.

Huatai Fund agrees, noting that the macro structural factors supporting gold have not fundamentally reversed, including ongoing central bank gold purchases under de-dollarization and the long-term credit erosion of the dollar driven by U.S. fiscal policies. They recommend adopting a prudent asset allocation approach to gold investment.

Post-market investment strategies: fund companies suggest focusing on three main themes

Faced with a complex start, how to identify main investment themes amid volatility is a key concern. Several fund companies have provided clear allocation directions, mainly focusing on two main themes: technology growth and cyclical/resource sectors, along with high-dividend assets as core holdings.

Theme 1: Emerging technology, especially AI and robotics. Despite a correction before the holiday, nearly all institutions agree that technology remains a crucial investment theme.

Morgan Asset Management recommends sticking to the medium-term industry trend of technology, focusing on deepening AI and related fields. Key areas include: 1) AI infrastructure (semiconductor equipment, optical modules, computing power support like gas turbines and liquid cooling); 2) AI applications and terminals (robotics industry chain as a core); 3) “14th Five-Year” emerging industry themes (commercial aerospace, quantum technology).

Jinying Fund also favors AI + humanoid robots, expecting a shift from “event-driven” to “scene-based” development throughout the year. They suggest paying attention to midstream components (gear reducers, servo motors, sensors) and computing power chains (storage chips, PCB/IC substrates).

Theme 2: Cyclical and resource sectors under the dual logic of price hikes and risk hedging, especially gold. As PPI expectations recover and geopolitical conflicts intensify, resource sectors become more attractive.

Yongyin Fund strongly favors gold stocks. The logic is that geopolitical uncertainties and easing expectations are positive factors; gold mining companies maintain high growth, with current P/E ratios of only 10-15, well below historical averages, offering significant valuation repair potential and a chance for both earnings and valuation to double (Davis double play).

Jinying Fund recommends focusing on cyclical sectors with rising prices such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and infrastructure-related materials benefiting from the “14th Five-Year” plan. Guotai Fund also believes that, in the medium term, the focus on rising prices remains the market’s main concern, especially as the Q1-Q2 construction season will test the strength of price increases.

Theme 3: High-dividend and domestic consumption may serve as “ballast” during volatile markets. During periods of market divergence, high-dividend assets offer stable returns. Jinying Fund suggests using sectors like banks, energy, telecommunications, and utilities as core holdings to hedge against overseas volatility and geopolitical risks.

Regarding domestic consumption, Morgan Asset Management and Great Wall Fund are optimistic about sectors benefiting from Spring Festival data and service consumption. Morgan highlights that Hong Kong stocks have many leading companies in service consumption, with structural advantages in travel and consumer sectors. Great Wall recommends focusing on consumer services, food and beverages, and building materials—these sectors are at bottom expectations and holdings, with potential for turning points.