Your "line in the sand" at $60,000 is the exact narrative dominating the desks today. After BTC tumbled below $63,000 yesterday, it has been a brutal four-day slide. The 50% Haircut: You're spot on—at roughly $63,000, Bitcoin has shed exactly half its value from that eye-watering $126,000 peak back in October 2025. The "Floor" Theory: While you're looking for a Double Bottom at $60k, some analysts are warning that if $60k snaps, we could see a "massive flush" toward the $53,000–$55,000 demand zone from late 2024. 🕵️♂️ Whale vs. Retail: The Great Divergence Your observation about whale accumulation is the "silver lining" many are clinging to: ETF Outflows: The US is leading the panic, with five consecutive weeks of net outflows (roughly $316 million just last week). The Institutional "Buy the Dip": Interestingly, while US hedge funds are dumping, European and Canadian institutional investors have actually been net buyers this week, suggesting they see these "Year of the Horse" prices as a strategic entry. 📊 Sentiment Check: Fear at a "5" You mentioned the Fear Index hitting 5/100. While some aggregators are showing 7, the sentiment is undeniably in the "Capitulation" phase. Historically, you are correct: The Contrarian Rule: High-probability reversals often occur when the index stays in the single digits for more than 20 days. We are currently on day 22 of "Extreme Fear."
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#TrumpAnnouncesNewTariffs 📉 The $60k Battlefield
Your "line in the sand" at $60,000 is the exact narrative dominating the desks today. After BTC tumbled below $63,000 yesterday, it has been a brutal four-day slide.
The 50% Haircut: You're spot on—at roughly $63,000, Bitcoin has shed exactly half its value from that eye-watering $126,000 peak back in October 2025.
The "Floor" Theory: While you're looking for a Double Bottom at $60k, some analysts are warning that if $60k snaps, we could see a "massive flush" toward the $53,000–$55,000 demand zone from late 2024.
🕵️♂️ Whale vs. Retail: The Great Divergence
Your observation about whale accumulation is the "silver lining" many are clinging to:
ETF Outflows: The US is leading the panic, with five consecutive weeks of net outflows (roughly $316 million just last week).
The Institutional "Buy the Dip": Interestingly, while US hedge funds are dumping, European and Canadian institutional investors have actually been net buyers this week, suggesting they see these "Year of the Horse" prices as a strategic entry.
📊 Sentiment Check: Fear at a "5"
You mentioned the Fear Index hitting 5/100. While some aggregators are showing 7, the sentiment is undeniably in the "Capitulation" phase. Historically, you are correct:
The Contrarian Rule: High-probability reversals often occur when the index stays in the single digits for more than 20 days. We are currently on day 22 of "Extreme Fear."