How The American Express (AXP) Narrative Is Shifting With Mixed Analyst Calls And New Guidance

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 10:08 AM GMT+9 4 min read

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The latest update on American Express centers on a higher fair value estimate, now set at US$379.60 compared with the prior US$354.83, a roughly 7% uplift. This shift lines up with a split but generally constructive tone from Wall Street, where some firms are lifting price targets into the US$375 to US$425 range while others stay cautious or trim their numbers. As you read on, you will see how these conflicting calls shape the evolving analyst story and what to watch as it develops.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for American Express shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on American Express.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

RBC Capital, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen and Barclays have all moved price targets into roughly the US$367 to US$425 range, signaling that several large houses see room for American Express to support higher valuations.

RBC Capital and Barclays describe credit conditions as stable or benign, which, along with expectations for loan growth, underpins their willingness to raise targets while still keeping risk in view.

BofA and Goldman Sachs point to stronger sentiment around consumer finance and card issuers, with BofA explicitly applying higher valuation multiples to the group, which feeds into its US$420 target.

BTIG and TD Cowen both lift targets while keeping more cautious stock ratings, suggesting that even the more skeptical analysts acknowledge support for higher fair value levels than before.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

UBS, JPMorgan, Truist and Evercore ISI have more recently trimmed price targets, highlighting concerns around execution against American Express' 2026 outlook and how guidance lines up with prior expectations.

BTIG maintains a Sell rating and previously flagged risk that shares could react negatively to American Express' 2026 guidance, keeping a focus on how future results compare with those plans.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

NYSE:AXP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We’ve flagged 2 risks for American Express. See which could impact your investment.

What’s in the News

American Express is reported to be near a deal to move its headquarters to 2 World Trade Center, which would shift its New York real estate footprint.

The company renewed and expanded its multiyear partnership with the NBA, WNBA, NBA G League, USA Basketball and NBA Take Two Media, adding new cardmember perks, more WNBA investment and a connected program with NBA ID.

American Express reported Q4 2025 share repurchases of 2,470,692 shares for US$891.06m, bringing total buybacks under its March 8, 2023 authorization to 61,650,601 shares for US$14.41b.

For 2026, American Express issued guidance that includes expected revenue growth of 9% to 10%, EPS of US$17.30 to US$17.90, and a planned quarterly dividend of US$0.95, which it describes as a 16% increase.

 






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How This Changes the Fair Value For American Express

Fair value revised from US$354.83 to US$379.60, representing a roughly 7% uplift based on updated inputs.

Revenue growth assumption adjusted from 10.28% to 11.57% for the forecast period.

Net profit margin in the model moved from 16.01% to 15.79%.

Future P/E multiple nudged from 20.91x to 21.20x on projected earnings.

Discount rate updated from 8.38% to 8.28% in the cash flow model.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives link a company’s business story to a financial forecast and fair value, so you can see how assumptions, risks, and numbers fit together. They refresh as new guidance, research, and data points come through.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on American Express to stay up to date on:

How American Express’ focus on premium cardmembers, younger demographics, and product refreshes ties into potential retention, spending, and fee income trends.

The role of credit quality, capital discipline, and ongoing buybacks in supporting earnings resilience and financial flexibility.

Key risks from rising competition, changing payment habits such as mobile wallets and BNPL, and potential regulatory shifts that could affect profitability.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include AXP.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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