Boeing (BA) Valuation In Focus After Recent Share Price Swings And Conflicting Fair Value Estimates

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 10:09 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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Why Boeing Stock Is On Investors’ Radar

Boeing (BA) has been drawing fresh attention after a period of mixed short term returns, with the share price showing declines over the week and month, but a gain over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Boeing.

While Boeing’s share price has seen a 4.5% decline over the past week and an 8% decline over 30 days, the 29.5% 90 day share price return and 31% 1 year total shareholder return suggest momentum has recently been rebuilding after earlier weakness.

If this has you thinking about where else strong rebounds might appear, take a look at our screener of 23 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another way to find potential opportunities tied to large scale infrastructure themes.

With Boeing trading at $232.03 and some valuation models suggesting an intrinsic value around 31% higher, the key question is whether there is still a buying opportunity or if the market is already fully reflecting expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 12.2% Overvalued

According to the widely followed narrative by FrugalBull, Boeing’s fair value sits at $206.79 versus the last close of $232.03, setting up a valuation gap that hinges on a multi year turnaround story.

Revenue Growth: Based on robust aerospace demand, analysts expect Boeing’s revenue to rise at a double digit pace as deliveries ramp. Simply Wall St data shows consensus revenue growth ~13.6% annually over the next few years. I assume Boeing’s sales climb from roughly ~$80 billion in 2024 toward ~$110 billion by 2027 as it works through its order backlog. Key drivers are higher production rates for the 737 MAX and 787, introduction of the 777X, and normalization of deliveries to markets like China. This assumption aligns with industry forecasts of continued traffic growth and record Airbus/Boeing production plans.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of earnings power sits behind that revenue ramp, and what profit margin and future P/E FrugalBull used to justify the fair value? The narrative lays out a detailed bridge from today’s results to those future numbers, including how much of Boeing’s backlog needs to convert and how quickly profitability has to rebuild for $206.79 to make sense.

Result: Fair Value of $206.79 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, your thesis still leans heavily on hitting production targets and keeping supply chain issues contained, while Boeing’s sizeable debt load leaves little room for prolonged setbacks.

Story Continues  

Find out about the key risks to this Boeing narrative.

Another Angle On Boeing’s Value

FrugalBull lands on a fair value of $206.79 and calls Boeing overvalued, but our DCF model points the other way. With Boeing at $232.03 and our DCF fair value at $337.95, it screens as around 31% undervalued. Which story do you think is closer to reality?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

BA Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Boeing for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Reading this, you can probably sense there are both real concerns and real optimism in the Boeing story. Act quickly, review the underlying data, and weigh up the balance of 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs for yourself.

Looking For More Investment Ideas?

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include BA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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