Did Dividend Cut And 2025 Loss Just Shift LyondellBasell Industries’ (LYB) Investment Narrative?

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 10:07 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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LYB

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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. recently reported full-year 2025 results showing revenue of US$30,153 million versus US$33,394 million a year earlier, swinging from net income of US$1.36 billion to a net loss of US$745 million and moving from earnings per share to a loss per share.

At the same time, the company cut its quarterly dividend to US$0.69 per share from US$1.37, signaling a shift toward conserving cash and reinforcing concerns about the strain of the prolonged chemical industry downturn on its balance sheet and future flexibility.

Against this backdrop, we'll examine how the sharp dividend reduction reshapes LyondellBasell's investment narrative built around cash generation and portfolio optimization.

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LyondellBasell Industries Investment Narrative Recap

To stay invested in LyondellBasell right now, you need to believe that its core petrochemical franchise and growing circular solutions can eventually translate weak 2025 results into healthier cash generation. The sharp dividend cut and swing to a net loss bring liquidity, leverage and potential credit rating pressure to the foreground as the key short term catalyst and the biggest immediate risk, rather than any single growth project.

The most relevant recent development here is S&P Global placing LyondellBasell on CreditWatch Negative after negative discretionary cash flow in 2025 and a 7% share price drop over five sessions. Combined with the lower dividend and the expected US$700 million to US$900 million loss on European asset sales, it focuses attention on balance sheet resilience as the crucial near term swing factor for how the story plays out.

But behind the dividend cut, there is also the growing risk that prolonged weak margins and CreditWatch status could affect LyondellBasell’s financial flexibility in ways investors should be aware of…

Read the full narrative on LyondellBasell Industries (it’s free!)

LyondellBasell Industries’ narrative projects $29.2 billion revenue and $2.2 billion earnings by 2028. This assumes revenues will decrease by 9.0% per year and requires about a $2.1 billion earnings increase from $150.0 million today.

Uncover how LyondellBasell Industries’ forecasts yield a $51.06 fair value, a 10% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

LYB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the most pessimistic analysts were already assuming revenues could slide toward about US$25.7 billion and still saw weak returns, so if you worry about high legacy costs and persistent oversupply, this latest loss and dividend reset may reinforce that more cautious view and is a good reminder that reasonable people can read the same numbers very differently.

Story continues  

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on LyondellBasell Industries - why the stock might be worth as much as 94% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

A great starting point for your LyondellBasell Industries research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Our free LyondellBasell Industries research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate LyondellBasell Industries' overall financial health at a glance.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include LYB.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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