Institution: The forecasted market is expected to reach an annual revenue of $10 billion by 2030.

On February 25, according to a report released by U.S. bank Citizens on Monday, the predicted annualized market revenue has increased from approximately $2 billion in December to over $3 billion currently, with an expectation to reach $10 billion by 2030. Analysts note that the accelerating trading volume, strengthened market structure, and early institutional participation indicate that this trajectory is mirroring the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets. The market has rapidly evolved from a niche betting platform to a complex trading ecosystem that aggregates probabilities of real-world events. Leading players include Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, and Polymarket, covering politics, sports, and economics, which are attracting widespread attention from mainstream finance and regulators. Analysts believe that asset classes typically follow a path from retail-driven liquidity to professional market makers and eventually to institutional capital—prediction markets are progressing along this trajectory. Trading volume in January grew over 40% compared to December, maintaining a similar growth rate in February. Sports events remain the primary source of liquidity, but the scope is expanding to macroeconomic, political, and regulatory events—areas that better meet institutional needs. Prediction markets enable investors to hedge risks from unexpected inflation or merger approvals without relying on proxy tools like index futures or options, thereby reducing basis risk. By isolating specific outcomes, they offer precise risk transfer mechanisms and real-time, capital-weighted probability signals. Institutional participation is beginning to emerge through data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards, and regulatory clarity. As infrastructure matures, the scale of direct trading is expected to grow. Although current revenue mainly comes from trading, bank analysts anticipate that as the ecosystem develops, data, research, and financing services will create new growth opportunities.