Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%, with a 77.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On February 5th, Eastern Time (Thursday), the three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.23% to 6,798.40 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.20% to 48,908.72 points; the Nasdaq Composite decreased 1.59% to 22,540.59 points.

【U.S. Bonds】

On February 5th, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.21%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.47%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia fell 1.37%, Apple dropped 0.21%, Google Class C declined 0.60%, Google Class A fell 0.54%, Microsoft decreased 4.95%, Amazon dropped 4.42%, TSMC rose 1.40%, Meta increased 0.18%, Tesla fell 2.17%, Super Micro Semiconductor declined 3.84%, and Intel decreased 0.74%.

【Global Indices】

【Chinese Indices】

On February 4th, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 1.81%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 1.95%, and FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.13%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) rose 0.09%, Alibaba fell 0.89%, Pinduoduo declined 0.60%, NetEase dropped 0.91%, Baidu increased 0.73%, Ctrip fell 0.07%, Li Auto rose 2.60%, Xpeng Motors increased 0.66%, and NIO surged 6.08%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Probability of the Fed holding rates steady in March is 77.3%

According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 22.7%, with a 77.3% chance of holding rates steady. The chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 36.2%, with a 58.1% probability of no change, and a 5.6% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 50.2%. (Cailian Press)

Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closes up 0.9%

The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.9%.

OpenAI and Ginkgo collaborate to reduce protein production costs by 40%

OpenAI announced on X platform that, in partnership with Ginkgo Bioworks, connecting GPT-5 with automated laboratories, they built a closed-loop system that reduces protein production costs by 40%. (Cailian Press)

Elon Musk says SpaceX is not developing a phone

Elon Musk stated that SpaceX is not developing a phone. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI CEO announces the official release of GPT-5.3-Codex

The CEO of OpenAI announced that GPT-5.3-Codex has been officially released. It requires less than half the tokens to complete similar tasks compared to 5.2-Codex, with over 25% faster token processing speed. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI launches new platform to help companies deploy “AI colleagues”

OpenAI is launching a new platform to assist enterprises in deploying AI agents more easily. This is part of the company’s broader efforts to strengthen its leadership in automating high-value tasks. Named Frontier, this product allows organizations to build and manage these AI tools, ensuring each agent has proper safety measures and data access. The goal is to simplify the deployment of AI colleagues—what OpenAI calls “AI colleagues”—and pave the way for large-scale adoption by enterprise clients. (Cailian Press)

Fed’s BOSTIC says prolonged high inflation is a concern

The Federal Reserve’s BOSTIC expressed concern over the prolonged duration of high inflation. (Cailian Press)

Nvidia delays new gaming chip release due to storage chip shortage

According to two informed sources, due to the ongoing global storage chip shortage triggered by the AI boom, Nvidia will not release new gaming graphics cards this year. This will be Nvidia’s first time in thirty years not launching a new gaming GPU. (Sina Tech)

European Central Bank maintains three key interest rates

The European Central Bank kept its three main interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, for the fifth consecutive meeting. The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes around 2% in the medium term.

UK 2-year government bond yields slightly decline before rate decision

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision, UK 2-year government bond yields slightly fell. Markets expect the Bank of England to keep rates at 3.75%. Investors will watch for any signals of potential rate cuts in the coming months. According to Tradeweb, the 2-year UK bond yield dropped 2 basis points to 3.708%.