AUD to MYR Trend: A Three-Level Deep Analysis from Central Bank Policies to Commodity Prices

The exchange rate fluctuations between AUD and MYR seem independent at first glance, but are deeply influenced by the global economic environment. As one of the top five most traded currencies worldwide, the Australian dollar attracts many traders due to its high liquidity and low spreads. However, over the past decade, the AUD has experienced a prolonged depreciation cycle. What underlying logic is behind this? How will the AUD versus MYR trend evolve in the future? The key to understanding this lies in grasping the commodity currency nature of the AUD and its interactions with the three major economies—USA, China, and Southeast Asia.

Why Is the AUD Getting Weaker? Unveiling the Decade-Long Depreciation Cycle

The AUD is a typical “commodity currency.” Australia’s economy heavily depends on exports of iron ore, coal, copper, and other bulk commodities. When global raw material prices fluctuate, the AUD often experiences sharp changes. Additionally, as a high-yield currency, the AUD was once favored in carry trades, but this advantage has diminished in recent years.

From early 2013, when the AUD/USD was around 1.05, to the end of 2023, the AUD depreciated over 35% against the USD. During the same period, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 28.35%, reflecting a global trend—the arrival of a strong dollar cycle. Not only did the AUD weaken, but the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar also depreciated against the dollar, indicating a comprehensive dollar appreciation wave rather than an Australian-specific issue.

From a technical perspective, the AUD has struggled in a downward trend. In Q4 2024, the AUD/USD plummeted, with an annual decline of about 9.2%. Entering 2025, amid rising global trade tensions and recession fears, the AUD briefly fell to 0.5933, hitting a five-year low. Analysts generally attribute this to: US tariffs impacting global trade, declining raw material exports weakening Australia’s commodity currency status, the difficulty in reversing the US-Australia interest rate differential, and domestic economic weakness reducing asset attractiveness.

Will the AUD Rebound? Three Key Factors Determine Its Direction

In mid to late 2025, the AUD experienced a rebound. Notably in September, the AUD/USD rose to 0.6636, surpassing the high in November 2024. The driving forces behind this include surging iron ore and gold prices, and the Fed’s easing expectations boosting risk appetite. But whether this rebound can continue depends on these three core factors:

Factor 1: RBA Policy Direction

In Q3 2025, Australia’s CPI rose 1.3% quarter-over-quarter, well above the expected 0.7%. The RBA emphasized that core inflation pressures in housing construction and services are more stubborn than anticipated, and only after confirming inflation is on a sustainable downward track will further easing be considered. This suggests a lower likelihood of rate cuts in the short term, which supports the AUD—when the central bank maintains a hawkish stance, the currency tends to be more attractive.

Factor 2: The US Dollar’s Strength or Weakness

In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% range, but Chair Powell’s subsequent comments dampened market expectations for further cuts in December. The DXY, after bottoming near 96 in summer, has shown unexpected resilience, rebounding about 3%, with a rising likelihood of surpassing 100. Generally, a stronger dollar correlates inversely with the AUD, which tends to weaken when the dollar gains.

Factor 3: China’s Economy

Australia’s economy is highly resource-dependent, with China being its largest buyer. China’s economic strength directly influences demand for Australian iron ore, coal, natural gas, and other raw materials, making it a key determinant of the AUD’s trend. When China’s economy recovers strongly, resource exports and prices rise, boosting market confidence in the AUD; conversely, a slowdown or persistent real estate downturn in China can dampen demand expectations, weakening the AUD.

Forecasts for AUD/USD, AUD/CNY, and AUD/MYR—Comparative Outlook

Different financial institutions have varying views on the AUD’s future. Morgan Stanley expects AUD/USD to rise to 0.72, citing potential hawkish RBA policies and commodity price strength. UBS remains more cautious, citing global trade uncertainties and Fed policy risks, projecting a year-end rate around 0.68. CBA economists are more conservative, predicting a short-lived rebound, with a peak around March 2026 and possible decline by year-end.

AUD/USD (AUD/USD) Short-term Outlook

Expect fluctuations between 0.63 and 0.66. If inflation data remains positive and the economy stays stable, the AUD could test resistance above 0.66. Conversely, global risk aversion or a stronger dollar could push it back to 0.63 or lower. The 200-day moving average at 0.6464 is a key technical level.

AUD/CNY Outlook

The RMB’s performance, influenced heavily by Chinese monetary policy and US-China relations, will impact AUD/CNY. Over the next 1-3 months, with RMB relatively stable, expect the pair to oscillate between 4.6 and 4.75. If the RMB weakens due to domestic pressures or external factors, AUD/CNY could briefly rise toward 4.8. Since AUD/CNY closely follows AUD/USD, but RMB volatility is lower, declines may be milder.

AUD/MYR Forecast—Key Opponent Analysis

AUD/MYR is affected by multiple factors. Malaysia’s economy also relies on exports and raw materials, with the Ringgit sensitive to commodity prices. If global demand remains stable, the Ringgit may strengthen, limiting AUD’s gains. Malaysia’s monetary policy is relatively stable and may tighten further; if interest rate differentials widen, the Ringgit could appreciate. In uncertain global conditions, AUD/MYR is expected to fluctuate between 3.0 and 3.15. If Australia’s economic data weakens further, it could test support near 3.0. This range is important for traders tracking AUD/MYR movements.

Practical Short- and Medium-term Investment Tips for AUD

Short-term Trading (1-3 days)

• Long (Buy) Conditions: When AUD/USD breaks above 0.6450 resistance, consider a small long position targeting the 200-day MA at 0.6464 and psychological 0.6500. Catalysts include weaker-than-expected US GDP or non-farm data (implying higher chance of rate cuts), or stronger-than-expected Australian CPI. Stop-loss at 0.6420.

• Short (Sell) Conditions: When price falls below the 10-day EMA at 0.6373, consider short positions targeting 0.6336 or 0.6300. Triggers include strong US data or significant cooling of Australian inflation. Stop-loss at 0.6400.

• Wait-and-See: Before major data releases (US GDP, core PCE, Australian CPI), market volatility may increase. Reduce positions or stay on the sidelines.

Medium-term Holding (1-3 weeks)

• Bullish Scenario: Weak US employment data, falling inflation, and easing trade tensions could boost risk sentiment, pushing AUD toward 0.6550–0.6600. A breakout above the 200-day MA (0.6464) can be a signal to add positions. Risks include rising Australian inflation forcing RBA hawkishness, unexpected dollar strength, or geopolitical shocks.

• Bearish Scenario: Strong US GDP and non-farm data, delaying Fed rate cuts, could strengthen the dollar and push AUD down to 0.6250. Risks include escalating trade conflicts or weak Australian trade data and Chinese economic slowdown.

Long-term Strategy

If bullish on AUD long-term, consider gradually building positions at current relatively low levels, smoothing out market fluctuations over time. Confirmed bullish technical signals can make long-term holding more attractive.

Opportunities and Risks in Forex Volatility

AUD’s exchange rate fluctuations create trading opportunities but also entail risks. Many traders use margin trading to leverage gains, with leverage ratios up to 1:200, allowing profit in bullish markets and opportunities in bearish ones, with relatively low entry barriers.

However, it must be emphasized that all investments carry risks. Forex trading is high-risk, and investors can lose all capital. Always understand the risks thoroughly, set clear risk management strategies, including proper stop-losses, position sizing, and avoiding excessive leverage.

Choose regulated, transparent, reputable trading platforms. Practice with demo accounts before live trading to familiarize yourself with trading procedures and risk controls.

Summary and Outlook

The AUD/MYR trend reflects shifts in the global economic landscape and the relative positions of major currencies. Currently, AUD/USD is in a technical consolidation phase amid fundamental debates. Short-term trading should focus on the 0.6370–0.6450 range, with breakout follow-through. The medium- to long-term direction depends on signals from Fed policy shifts and global trade risks.

Monitor four key variables: Australian CPI and RBA policy, US economic data and Fed comments, China’s economic recovery, and global trade policy developments. If recent data reinforce rate cut expectations, consider long positions; otherwise, beware of dollar rebound risks. Stay attentive to market sentiment around data releases, and adjust strategies flexibly to find trading opportunities in AUD/MYR movements amid volatility.