Without AI spending, U.S. corporate investment in equipment would be negative, a decline that’s ‘worryingly broad-based,’ Pantheon analyst says

Spending on AI infrastructure now forms a significant part of U.S. GDP growth, and corporate capital expenditure (capex) would be negative without it, according to a recent research note from Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“We’ve got a situation where large sums of money are pouring into AI infrastructure, providing a meaningful boost to GDP,” Pantheon analyst Oliver Allen told _Fortune _recently.

Overall capex rose by 2.6% in Q4 2025, Allen wrote in a research note this morning. Within that, intellectual property and software spending (i.e., spending likely linked to AI) was up 7.4%, and computer and communications equipment was up 61%. But all other segments declined: “Investment in other equipment plunged by 17%, a decline that was worryingly broad-based,” he wrote.

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“The first three quarters of 2025 averaged 2.5% GDP growth. [And] 0.3 percentage points of that was AI-related sectors,” he said. Separately, Apollo Global Management calculates that “hyperscaler capex is expected in 2026 to be at approximately $646 billion, or about 2% of US GDP.”

Allen also theorized that consumer spending may in some way be buoyed by AI capex. Consumer spending rose by 2.4% in Q4 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. Consumer spending at the moment is heavily driven by spending from wealthier demographics who have enjoyed stock market gains, often from tech stocks, Allen told Fortune.

“Their spending is a little bit stronger than it otherwise would have been due to the wealth effect” of tech stocks, he said.

“Markets do run off stories and a certain view of the future. A lot of the growth we’re seeing through the capex story, through the wealth effect, is via this story about AI being the future,” he said.

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