Dollar to Pound remains anchored at 47: Central Bank maintains balance amid economic optimism

Egyptian currency markets experienced relative calm during February 2026, with the dollar-to-pound exchange rate stabilizing around 47 pounds. Major banks recorded very close buy and sell prices, reflecting market health. This stability comes alongside strong economic indicators and a balanced monetary policy by the Central Bank, giving foreign investors confidence in the Egyptian pound’s continued value.

What does the stability of the dollar against the pound at these levels mean?

The Egyptian currency is now moving within a very narrow range, a clear sign of the success of the “managed flexibility” approach adopted by the Central Bank. The banking sector has shown tangible improvements in net foreign assets, with private banks like CIB and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank reflecting almost no speculation in their prices.

This means the foreign exchange market is functioning efficiently, and the dollar-to-pound rate is not under extreme selling or buying pressures. Instead, there is genuine balance between supply and demand for the US dollar, supported by strong inflows from foreign direct investments, Suez Canal revenues, and tourism.

The underlying economic signals behind the dollar’s stability against the pound

Egypt’s economy grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, a strong performance indicating an improved investment climate. Inflation has also gradually decreased, enhancing the attractiveness of real interest rates on deposits and investments in pounds.

These positive indicators have played a key role in attracting foreign investment funds, especially institutions seeking stable returns with low risk. All of this directly impacted the forex market: increased demand for the pound = downward pressure on the dollar-to-pound rate.

What do international institutions expect for the dollar and pound trajectory?

Global financial institutions do not always agree, but their forecasts for 2026 suggest a relatively encouraging outlook:

Fitch Solutions’ view: expects the dollar-to-pound rate to stay between 47 and 49 pounds throughout the year, considering structural reforms as providing a solid foundation for the pound.

Standard Chartered’s forecast: revised its model to reflect the dollar reaching 47.5 pounds by the end of Q1, with inflation continuing to decline toward 12%.

IMF perspective: emphasizes the importance of exchange rate flexibility as a shield against external shocks, expecting growth to accelerate to 5.4% in the next fiscal year.

In summary: no major moves are expected for the dollar against the pound, with consensus leaning toward a narrow trading range.

Technical analysis: what do technical tools tell us about the dollar-to-pound rate?

From a technical standpoint, the dollar’s current movement against the pound is below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50), which is at 47.45 pounds. This indicates a short-term positive technical signal for the pound. If the short-term moving average continues to approach the longer-term 200-day average, we might see a “death cross,” a strong indicator that the pound could strengthen toward 46 pounds if investment inflows persist.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, in the neutral zone but slightly leaning toward oversold for the dollar. In other words: buying pressure is weak, selling pressure is stable. This supports the likelihood of continued market calm rather than sudden moves.

Regarding support and resistance levels, traders should watch these:

Resistance levels:

• First resistance at 47.80 pounds: breaking above this would signal renewed buying interest in the dollar
• Second resistance at 48.50 pounds: surpassing this could end the optimistic outlook for the pound

Support levels:

• First support at 46.80 pounds: a strong psychological and technical level where price has repeatedly bounced
• Second support at 45.50 pounds: possible in more optimistic scenarios for the pound

Factors to monitor closely

While the current outlook for the dollar against the pound appears positive, certain factors require attention:

On the pound’s side: External debt repayments exert periodic pressure on foreign reserves, especially in the coming months.

On the pound’s strengthening: The government’s privatization program and attracting direct Gulf investments are strong drivers for currency appreciation. Additionally, Wall Street analysts are watching Egypt’s ability to reduce debt-to-GDP ratio as a critical sign of continued recovery.

Summary: dollar against the pound between stability and stable prospects

The dollar against the Egyptian pound currently appears “strong to stable” from a technical perspective, supported by macroeconomic indicators. As long as trading remains below 47.80 pounds, the primary trend favors the Egyptian pound. Even if some fluctuations occur, the subdued RSI suggests any movement will be gradual rather than driven by sudden external shocks. Overall, the Egyptian pound remains a relatively successful story in the current regional and global context.