Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 25, 2026

Good Morning from Huajian

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Market Overview

Software stocks and other AI “victims” drive U.S. stocks rebound, with the Nasdaq up over 1%, companies collaborating with Anthropic see their stock prices rise, including Thomson Reuters up over 11%, FactSet nearly 6%, Salesforce over 4%, leading the Dow components; IBM rebounds nearly 3% after a 13% drop; Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations for three consecutive quarters, reaching a three-month high; AMD, which secured a large GPU supply order from Meta, up nearly 9%; storage chip stocks generally decline against the trend, with Sandisk, shorted by Citron, down over 4%; Chinese concept index closes up nearly 1.4%, reversing eight consecutive declines and outperforming the market, with GDS up nearly 7%.

The US dollar index rebounds, approaching four-week highs, the yen drops over 1% intraday to a two-week low, offshore RMB breaks through 6.88 during trading, and hits a nearly three-year high again; Bitcoin dips below $65,000 intraday but recovers most of its decline, once rising over 3% from the daily low.

US Treasury prices and gold both decline. Gold hits a new intra-month high for two days before turning lower, dropping over 2% at one point; spot silver once fell over 3%, but silver futures have closed higher for five consecutive days. Before US-Iran negotiations, crude oil rebounded but failed to sustain gains, rising over 1% during the day before turning lower.

During Asian hours, A-shares start the Year of the Horse with a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.9% on increased volume, resource stocks surge collectively, RMB rises above 6.89, the Hang Seng Tech Index falls over 2%, and Zhipu soars 12%.

Top News

China

State Council Executive Meeting: Promote work related to silver-haired economy and elderly care services, and approve the “Opinions on Strengthening Grassroots Firefighting Work”.

China’s LPR remains unchanged for nine consecutive months: As of February 5, the 5-year and above LPR is 3.5%, the 1-year LPR is 3%.

China’s Ministry of Commerce responds to US tariff adjustments: Will decide in due course whether to adjust countermeasures against US tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs.

German media: German Chancellor Scholz will lead a “large business delegation” to China, visiting Beijing and Hangzhou, with “unprecedented meticulous preparations”.

Domestic demand for computing power continues to explode, Sugon’s 2025 non-GAAP net profit to increase by 30% year-on-year.

Overseas

Trump to deliver State of the Union address at 10 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, market closely watches tariffs, cost of living, immigration, and geopolitics.

Trump’s 10% “global tariffs” take effect Tuesday, 15% tariff schedule yet to be finalized. Reports: US considers imposing new tariffs on about six industries, including large batteries.

Report: Trump plans to set reference prices for critical minerals using AI, with germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten among the first included.

Chicago Fed President: Current inflation “still not good enough”, tariff rulings help cool inflation. Fed Governor Cook: Monetary policy may not be able to address AI-induced unemployment; Governor Waller: Citrini’s report “exaggerates AI’s potential impact on employment”.

Anthropic upgrades enterprise AI tools, expanding scenarios in investment banking, HR, etc., with FactSet and other partners’ stock prices rising, Thomson Reuters up over 10%.

Citrini’s “AI Doomsday” report author: Market panic exceeds expectations, calls for an “AI tax” to address unemployment; the report hints that Asian tech stocks may become winners, naming MiniMax and Zhipu; White House economists: Citrini’s report is pure “science fiction”.

AMD signs a $100 billion deal with Meta to supply 6GW of chips, a five-year long-term contract competing directly with Nvidia, stock up nearly 9%.

Sandisk, shorted by Citron, claims supply shortages are a “mirage”, cycle nearing peak, stock once drops 8%.

Novo Nordisk plans to significantly cut US prices for weight-loss drugs next year, with reductions up to 50%.

Market Close

US and European stocks: S&P 500 up 0.77% at 6,890.07; Dow up 0.76% at 49,174.50; Nasdaq up 1.05% at 22,863.68. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 0.23% at 629.14.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 0.87% at 4,117.41; Shenzhen Component up 1.36% at 14,291.57; ChiNext up 0.99% at 3,308.26.

Bond Market

Commodities

Details of Top News

Global Highlights

China

State Council Executive Meeting: Promote work related to silver-haired economy and elderly care services, and approve the “Opinions on Strengthening Grassroots Firefighting Work”. The meeting emphasized that China’s silver-haired economy has great potential. Support measures should be improved, policy implementation strengthened, and development of elderly care industry and services promoted to support aging population. Further release of elderly consumption demand, enhancement of consumption capacity, and leveraging policies like subsidies to create new elderly consumption scenarios and formats.

China’s LPR remains unchanged for nine months: As of February 5, the 5-year and above LPR is 3.5%, the 1-year LPR is 3%. Regarding monetary policy this year, the central bank recently stated that tools like RRR cuts and interest rate reductions will be used flexibly and efficiently. “Flexible” means adjusting according to internal and external conditions and economic needs; “efficient” means focusing on policy effectiveness and targeting, supporting growth while preventing risks like capital misallocation and local government debt.

China’s Ministry of Commerce responds to US tariff adjustments: Will decide in due course whether to adjust countermeasures against US tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs. The ministry states that the US has stopped imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and is now applying a 10% global import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. China is monitoring and will assess US measures comprehensively, adjusting countermeasures as appropriate. China reserves all necessary measures to defend its rights.

“Unprecedentedly meticulous” — German media: Chancellor Scholz to lead a “large business delegation” to China, visiting Beijing and Hangzhou. According to Global Times, Scholz will lead about 30 executives from companies like Volkswagen and Siemens on Feb 25-26, marking his first visit to China. The trip is described as “unprecedentedly meticulous” to strengthen economic and trade cooperation, balancing national interests and values amid changing international dynamics and US-China relations.

Domestic demand for computing power continues to surge, Sugon’s non-GAAP net profit to increase 30% YoY in 2025. Sugon’s revenue in 2025 is projected at 14.97 billion yuan, up 13.86%; net profit attributable to parent is 2.113 billion yuan, up 10.54%. Notably, non-GAAP net profit reaches 1.785 billion yuan, a 30.17% increase, significantly faster than overall net profit, indicating sustained endogenous growth driven by product optimization and operational efficiency.

Overseas

Major State of the Union address before the election, market closely watching Trump, tariffs, cost of living, immigration, geopolitics. Trump will deliver the speech at 10 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, focusing on policies to address high living costs, such as AI power cost reforms and healthcare subsidies. After the Supreme Court rejected key tariffs, markets focus on trade alternatives, while Middle East military build-up heightens geopolitical concerns.

US tariffs: 10% tariffs take effect Tuesday; 15% schedule not yet finalized. The White House is bypassing Congress via Section 122 of the Trade Act, extending tariffs for 150 days, with reports suggesting rates could rise to 15%. Uncertainty causes global turmoil; EU and India halt trade negotiations urgently, with 60% of Americans opposing. Analysts note that the flexibility of Section 301 and 232 tariffs is less than emergency powers, and investigations may take months.

Reports: US considers imposing new tariffs on about six industries, including large batteries. Using Section 232, the US aims to expand tariffs beyond 15%, targeting sectors like batteries, chemicals, semiconductors, robotics, etc.

The Supreme Court rejects emergency tariffs, but retailers say: don’t expect lower prices. Although companies win lawsuits, refund procedures are complex and lengthy (possibly years). Companies plan to use refunds to offset costs rather than cut prices, so consumers won’t see immediate benefits. Meanwhile, new temporary tariffs push the effective rate back up to 13.7%, disrupting consumer optimism.

Reports: Trump plans to set reference prices for critical minerals using AI, with germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten among the first. The US plans to use Pentagon AI projects (OPEN) to establish reference prices for key minerals, creating a global metals trading bloc. The mechanism involves AI-based cost modeling and adjustable tariffs to maintain pricing power, focusing on four metals initially. Aims to attract allies and protect domestic miners, though effectiveness and international cooperation face skepticism.

Federal Reserve officials: Current inflation “still not good enough”, tariff rulings help reduce inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the Supreme Court’s ruling to overturn Trump’s emergency tariffs adds uncertainty but may help cool inflation. Policy uncertainty causes businesses to wait, but could ease inflation pressures. He emphasizes that broad evidence of inflation returning to 2% is needed before supporting rate cuts. Despite recent inflation exceeding expectations, markets delay rate cut expectations, but he remains optimistic about multiple cuts this year.

Fed Governor warns: Monetary policy may not be able to address AI-induced unemployment. Cook states AI has caused intergenerational shifts in the US labor market, potentially raising unemployment, and the Fed may be unable to cut rates to address this. Policy may face a dilemma—rate cuts won’t fix structural unemployment and could boost inflation; AI may first raise then lower neutral interest rates; productivity data may take 5-10 years to reflect AI impacts. Waller also notes that the recent stock declines in software sectors caused by Citrini’s report “exaggerate AI’s potential impact on employment”, emphasizing AI as a tool, not a human replacer.

Cooperation, not disruption! Anthropic upgrades enterprise AI tools, expanding into scenarios like investment banking, HR, etc. Anthropic releases multiple AI plugins for Claude Cowork, allowing integration with Gmail, DocuSign, FactSet, WordPress, LegalZoom, etc., and deployment in finance, research, PE, wealth management, engineering, HR. PwC partners with Anthropic to accelerate enterprise AI deployment in highly regulated industries. FactSet and partners’ stock prices soar, with Thomson Reuters up over 14%. Anthropic executives say recent stock declines are overreactions or misinterpretations; their AI models help companies grow, not replace jobs; no large-scale job displacement observed; impacts will vary across roles, with concerns mainly about execution-focused positions.

“Official clarification”: White House economist dismisses Citrini’s AI risk report as “science fiction”. Acting Chair Pierre Yared calls Citrini’s report on AI causing mass unemployment and stock market drag “science fiction,” citing violation of basic economic principles. He notes that innovation always involves some volatility and chaos, which is normal, and prefers to focus on actual research results rather than doomsday scenarios.

Citrini’s “AI Doomsday” report author: Market panic exceeds expectations, calls for an “AI tax” to curb unemployment. A scenario report on AI impact triggered global sell-offs, with IBM plunging 13% in one day, a 25-year record. Shah, the author, admits market reaction was “beyond expectations,” warns that in 18 months, white-collar jobs could decline by 5%, and urges government to tax AI to prevent a negative employment feedback loop—if jobs vanish faster than expected, the entire economy faces risks. He states, “Everyone is now fully invested in AI, with few new buyers.”

The “AI doomsday” report hints that Asian tech stocks may become winners, naming MiniMax and Zhipu. The report caused US software stocks to sell off but unexpectedly boosted Asian tech stocks, with correlations dropping to a seven-year low. The author emphasizes that semiconductors, data centers, and large models are the main beneficiaries of this AI wave, noting that Chinese stocks MiniMax and Zhipu doubled this month, and mentioning TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix.

AMD deepens partnership with Meta, $100 billion order lands, a five-year long-term contract competing directly with Nvidia. Meta and AMD sign a five-year strategic agreement to purchase 6 GW of chips and deeply customize the MI450 processor. Meta secures warrants in exchange, potentially holding up to 10% of AMD. The move aims to secure supply and diversify dependence on Nvidia, accelerating the global computing race through deep customization and supply chain reshaping.

The newly launched ChatGPT ads—how do they perform? The first commercial for ChatGPT “backfired”: user experience worse than early Google! ChatGPT offers four ad formats from brand awareness to closed-loop transactions, with good click-through but poor ROI, lacking performance data and CRM integration. Experts expect 6-12 months for improvement, but it will take time to challenge Google’s dominance.

Sandisk “plummets”! Short seller Citron claims supply shortages are a “mirage”, cycle nearing peak. Sandisk drops 8%. Citron’s short thesis cites three reasons: Samsung competition, Western Digital’s recent sell-off, and cyclical peak patterns. Samsung reportedly won’t sell below 50% gross margin and is entering Sandisk’s core SSD market with advanced chips; capacity is now twice 2018’s peak, ready to flood the market, potentially reversing the supply-demand balance in one earnings call. Sandisk should not be valued like Nvidia; Nvidia has a moat, Sandisk is a commodity.

Novo Nordisk plans to cut US prices for weight-loss drugs by up to 50% next year. The company announced that the monthly list price of semaglutide drugs in the US will be reduced to $675, effective January, aiming to counter competition from Eli Lilly and market pressures. The price cut mainly benefits high-deductible plan enrollees and is unrelated to Medicare negotiations. After the announcement, Novo Nordisk’s US stock fell 3.6%; earlier this week, it dropped over 16% due to poor trial data.

Selected Research Reports

High net worth, redemption restrictions! Is the current “PE private credit crisis” a new “subprime”? Discount on BDCs hits post-pandemic high, Blue Owl restricts redemptions, spreading panic. Deutsche Bank notes that due to opacity and exposure to software, large listed private equity firms’ stocks have plunged, but systemic risk conditions are not yet met. Investors should monitor credit spreads, regulatory changes, and four key indicators, as discounts may evolve from sentiment to hard constraints on financing.

Domestic Macro

Huang Kunming, Secretary of Guangdong CPC Committee: Maximize easing for technological innovation and market exploration, enabling low-altitude economy to “fly,” autonomous driving to “run,” embodied intelligence to “use.” He emphasized deepening reforms to strengthen new tracks and fields, solving the problem of “old rules governing new productive forces,” and easing restrictions to support innovation and market development, ensuring both “freedom to operate” and “effective regulation.”

Panama government forcibly takes over Li Ka-shing’s ports; Hong Kong SAR government protests: “Disregard facts, breach trust.” According to Daily Economic News, on Feb 24, Hong Kong SAR government expressed strong dissatisfaction and condemnation over Panama’s forced takeover and revocation of operation rights at two ports operated by CK Hutchison. Panama’s government took control of the Panama ports of Balboa and Cristóbal, operated by CK’s subsidiary, and barred representatives from entering. The incident caused CK’s stock to fall over 2.6%.

Domestic companies/industries

Optical communications soar across the board! Breakthroughs in 6G and AI computing power accelerate industry. Peking University team achieves seamless cross-network integration of fiber and wireless systems, breaking three world records in data transmission speeds. Meanwhile, leading domestic companies’ AI optical module orders are booked through Q4 2026, with full capacity. Guotou Securities believes the optical communication industry chain is increasingly concentrated upstream in silicon photonics, high-performance lasers, and midstream advanced packaging.

Over 90% of Silver LOF investors fully compensated; how much will fund companies pay? According to Daily Economic News, Guotou Ruixin has launched a special compensation plan for Silver LOF’s valuation adjustments caused by extreme market conditions. Over 90% of investors will be fully compensated. The estimated maximum payout is about 433 million yuan, exceeding the company’s 2024 full-year net profit of 376 million yuan, demonstrating strong support and investor protection.

Lei Jun: Xiaomi will focus on chips, AI, and operating systems over the next five years. Over the past five years, Xiaomi has entered the “hard-core tech” deep water zone, investing hundreds of billions in R&D, achieving breakthroughs in core technologies like self-developed chips. Lei Jun stated at a private enterprise forum that Xiaomi’s goals align with the “14th Five-Year Plan.” The company plans to prioritize chips, AI, and OS development in the coming five years.

Overseas Macro

The US is exerting maximum pressure; Iran claims readiness for war, Trump “curious” why Iran refuses to yield. Global Times reports that US-Iran negotiations are scheduled for Feb 26 in Geneva. Axios suggests this could be the last chance before US launches large-scale military action. US media indicate Trump favors a quick strike within days, with larger operations in months, aiming to force Iran to capitulate. Iran warns any US attack will be considered aggression and will be strongly retaliated.

US labor market recovers mildly; ADP reports an average of 12,750 new private sector jobs weekly over the past four weeks, improving from a low of 4,250 in early January but still below the November 2023 peak of 17,000–20,000, indicating ongoing recovery but not yet full rebound.

JPMorgan CEO warns: US credit environment shows signs of 2008; AI-related software sector faces default risks. Jamie Dimon warns that high asset prices and reckless pursuit of profits resemble pre-2008 conditions, with credit cycles reversing and potential wave of defaults, especially in AI software. He criticizes some institutions for risky behaviors and avoiding succession issues.

Yen plunges; Takashi Matsuya warns against further rate hikes by BoJ. Matsuya pressures the Bank of Japan to resist rate increases, causing market turbulence. Despite BoJ’s attempts to downplay political interference, the news sharply weakens the yen, with USD/JPY rising over 1%, and bond yields falling. The political-BOJ tug-of-war adds uncertainty to Japan’s monetary policy.

Overseas Companies

Cook fulfills $600 billion commitment: Apple accelerates AI server production in Houston, first “Made in USA” Mac mini. Apple announced on Feb 24 that later this year, Mac mini will be manufactured in Houston, expanding AI server capacity. Since promising to invest $600 billion in the US last year, Apple has sourced over 20 billion chips from 12 states, with projects from TSMC, GlobalWafers, and others.

Apple’s MacBook Pro to add touchscreens and Dynamic Island. Reports suggest that by late 2026, Apple will launch MacBook Pros with OLED touchscreens and Dynamic Island, supporting switching between touch and mouse input, with touch gestures bringing up dedicated menus. macOS Tahoe “liquid glass” design has prepared for this. Apple has long criticized touch notebooks, with co-founder Jobs calling such designs “ergonomically disastrous.”

Moody’s warns: US tech giants hide hundreds of billions of potential liabilities through accounting tricks. Moody’s warns that US GAAP loopholes allow companies like Meta and Oracle to exclude hundreds of billions of AI data center costs and guarantees via SPVs and short-term leases. For example, Meta’s remaining value guarantees of $28 billion are not recognized as liabilities due to low probability thresholds.

Industry/Concepts

1. Silver-haired Economy | Xinhua reports that on Feb 24, the State Council held an executive meeting to advance work on the silver-haired economy and elderly care services. The meeting highlighted the huge potential of China’s silver-haired economy. Support measures should be improved, policies implemented effectively, and elderly care industry developed to support aging. Further release of elderly consumption demand, enhancement of consumption capacity, and leveraging subsidies to create new elderly consumption scenarios and formats.

Comment: Research institutions estimate China’s elderly care market reached about 12 trillion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 trillion yuan by 2027. Elderly services cover food, housing, medical care, daily assistance, entertainment, and learning, with broad coverage, long industry chain, and close ties to elderly needs, representing a key segment with vast growth prospects. Driven by policy and market, the elderly care industry faces new opportunities.

2. Aerospace | Xinhua reports that to facilitate AI data center satellite deployment, Elon Musk envisions launching satellites from the Moon via electromagnetic catapults. According to French science website “Future Science,” Musk plans to build a giant electromagnetic launcher and satellite assembly plant on the Moon, using the former to send satellites into Earth orbit. Theoretically, launching from the Moon is feasible due to its low gravity, lack of atmosphere, and abundant solar energy, which could make launches more efficient and easier to deploy large satellite constellations, avoiding congested near-Earth space and debris.

3. Semiconductors | Beijing Daily reports that on Feb 23, researcher Qiu Chenguang from Peking University’s School of Electronics announced they have developed the smallest and lowest-power ferroelectric transistors to date, which could support AI chip performance and energy efficiency improvements. This technology breaks physical limits of traditional ferroelectric transistors, reducing energy consumption by an order of magnitude compared to the best international levels. The ultra-low voltage, low-power nano-gate ferroelectric transistors could provide core components for high-efficiency data centers and next-generation AI chips.

4. Diamond Cooling | Securities Times reports that on Feb 23, Akash Systems announced the delivery of the world’s first NVIDIA GPU servers equipped with Diamond Cooling technology to Indian cloud provider NxtGen AI Pvt Ltd. Based on NVIDIA’s H200 platform, this is the first commercial AI server system to use “diamond thermal conduction” technology, representing material-level innovation.

5. Satellite Internet | Securities Times reports on Feb 24 that China SatNet has initiated two major procurement projects to accelerate satellite internet deployment: (1) procurement of phased-array broadband terminals with an effective aperture of 0.45 meters, now in supplier negotiations, mainly in Beijing and Xi’an; (2) a project for AI-based digital model training capacity, now open for bidding with funding secured. Previous tenders show that companies like Feisi Communications, Aerospace Star, Shenzhou Weitong, and Mengsheng Technology have bid for the 0.45m phased-array terminals, with prices between 1.79 and 2.22 million yuan per set. Industry expects demand to surge with low-earth orbit broadband satellite deployment, supporting applications in military, emergency, IoT, and consumer broadband.

6. Quantum Computing | Zhongzheng Securities reports that on Feb 24, Anhui Quantum Computing Engineering Center announced the launch of “Ben Yuan Sinan,” China’s first domestically developed quantum computer operating system, now available for download online. This is the world’s first open-source quantum OS, lowering development barriers and accelerating China’s quantum ecosystem independence.

7. Vocational Education | Ministry of Education website states that recently issued “Opinions on Deepening Key Elements Reform in Vocational Education,” which calls for coordinated reforms in majors, courses, textbooks, teachers, and internships, shifting talent cultivation from traditional knowledge transfer to comprehensive ability enhancement, promoting systematic leap in vocational education quality and integration of industry and education, fostering a high-skill talent ecosystem.

Upcoming Key Events

Hong Kong releases new fiscal budget.

Eurozone January CPI data.

Speeches by Richmond Fed President Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.

Nvidia earnings report.

Apple’s 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting.

US EIA crude oil inventory change last week.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks exist; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should determine whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.