ADA bearish signal, $0.27 retest scenario emerges

Cardano (ADA) has been experiencing continuous weakness since mid-last month. The current price is trading around $0.26, and both technical indicators and derivatives market data suggest the possibility of further decline. In particular, if the key support level breaks, there is a high likelihood of retesting the October low of $0.27.

Technical Indicators Signal Bearishness

ADA’s daily technical indicators continue to show clear bearish signals. The RSI remains below the neutral level (50) at around 39, indicating dominant bearish momentum. The MACD also maintains its signal since the bearish crossover in mid-last month, with the red histogram expanding below the zero line. This is interpreted as a sign supporting further downside potential.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $0.39. After confirming this resistance in mid-last month, ADA declined by about 10%. It then broke below the daily support at $0.38, and over the past week, the decline has extended by more than 9%.

Derivatives Market Contraction Signals

Binance’s futures open interest (OI) has recently fallen to $108.55 million, the lowest level since late December. The decline in OI suggests reduced inflow of new funds and less new position building. The slowdown in market participation weakens the short-term rebound momentum, increasing the likelihood of an extended correction.

Price Scenarios: Bearish vs. Bullish

Bearish Scenario – Re-test Concerns

If the correction continues, the first support level to watch is the late-last month low of $0.32. If the closing price falls below this level, the downside could open up to the October low of $0.27. Given the current technical weakness and derivatives market contraction, a re-test at this level cannot be ruled out.

Bullish Scenario – Conditions for Recovery

If a rebound occurs, a short-term recovery attempt toward $0.38 (daily level) is possible. However, what matters most in this phase is not just the rebound itself but whether the price closes above the key support level. Such a close could signal a trend reversal.

Summary

Cardano shows multiple technical bearish signals and decreasing market participation, increasing the risk of retesting the $0.27 level. Investors should monitor whether the $0.32 support holds and pay close attention to the closing patterns at key price levels. Considering the peak at $3.09 and the current $0.26, even if a technical rebound occurs, cautious position management is essential.