Is It Too Late To Consider BWX Technologies (BWXT) After Nuclear Contract Momentum?

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 10:09 AM GMT+9 6 min read

In this article:

BWXT

-1.26%

Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.

If you are wondering whether BWX Technologies is still good value after its recent run, you are not alone. This article is built to answer that question head on.

The stock last closed at US$206.44, with returns of 3.0% over 7 days, a 0.6% decline over 30 days, 13.5% year to date and 105.2% over the past year, as well as 249.3% over 3 years and 278.3% over 5 years.

Recent news coverage has focused on BWX Technologies as a key nuclear technology and services provider for defense and power applications. This helps frame why the market is paying close attention to the stock. Investors are watching how long term contracts, government related work and nuclear sector interest intersect with the current share price.

Despite that attention, BWX Technologies currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. We will look at what traditional valuation methods say about the stock today and then finish with a more rounded way to think about value beyond a single score.

BWX Technologies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: BWX Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those cash flows back to a present value.

For BWX Technologies, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at about $448.2 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest free cash flow of $272.7 million in 2026, rising to $667.7 million by 2035, with $406.3 million projected for 2028. Simply Wall St uses analyst estimates where available, then extends the series using its own assumptions beyond the formal forecast horizon.

On this basis, the DCF output indicates an estimated intrinsic value of about $121.15 per share, compared with the recent share price of $206.44. That gap implies the stock is around 70.4% overvalued according to this cash flow model.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BWX Technologies may be overvalued by 70.4%. Discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

BWXT Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BWX Technologies.

Approach 2: BWX Technologies Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like BWX Technologies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It reflects both what the market expects from future growth and how it prices the risk of those earnings.

Story continues  

Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk typically line up with a lower, more conservative multiple. Therefore, a “normal” or “fair” P/E is not one fixed number. It depends on the company’s specific profile.

BWX Technologies is currently trading on a P/E of 61.48x. This is above the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 43.68x and also above the peer average of 43.62x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for BWX Technologies is 33.03x, which is its proprietary estimate of an appropriate P/E given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and key risks. Because this Fair Ratio is tailored to the company’s fundamentals, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the industry alone. With the current 61.48x P/E sitting well above the 33.03x Fair Ratio, the stock screens as expensive on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:BWXT P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BWX Technologies Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to think about value than a single P/E or DCF number. On Simply Wall St that starts with Narratives, which let you attach a clear story for BWX Technologies to your own forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, link that story to a Fair Value, and then quickly compare it with the current price so you can judge whether the stock looks attractive or expensive relative to your view.

A Narrative is simply your thesis written into numbers. You set assumptions such as a Fair Value of US$120 if you are more cautious about nuclear demand and contract risk, or US$250 if you think long term government contracts and nuclear programs can support stronger outcomes. The platform then connects those assumptions to a forecast model that updates automatically when new earnings, filings or news arrive.

Because these Narratives live on the BWX Technologies Community page and are used by millions of investors, you can see how different investors interpret the same facts, compare their Fair Values to today’s US$206.44 share price, and decide for yourself whether your own story for the company puts you closer to the lower end, the higher end, or somewhere in between.

For BWX Technologies however we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading BWX Technologies Narratives:

🐂 BWX Technologies Bull Case

Fair value: US$224.44

Implied undervaluation vs last close: about 8.0%

Assumed annual revenue growth: 12.21%

Focuses on strong demand for nuclear components, fuels and services across defense, commercial power and medical uses, supported by a multi year contract backlog and long duration government programs.

Highlights microreactors, advanced nuclear fuels, enrichment and the Kinectrics acquisition as ways BWX Technologies could build higher margin, recurring revenue streams over time.

Flags key risks around reliance on U.S. government contracts, lumpier commercial demand, margin pressure in acquired businesses, workforce depth and potential regulatory or supply chain headwinds.

🐻 BWX Technologies Bear Case

Fair value: US$130.00

Implied overvaluation vs last close: about 58.0%

Assumed annual revenue growth: 11.31%

Argues that the current P/E multiple reflects a high growth tech style premium for what is still an industrial company, with past earnings growth described as limited and expectations around new nuclear technologies seen as optimistic.

Points to heavy use of acquisitions relative to internal investment as a sign that growth is being bought, with integration costs and uncertain timing of benefits weighing on margins.

Raises concerns about revenue recognition on long term contracts, potential earnings adjustments if costs move against estimates, and refinancing needs on upcoming debt maturities as factors that could pressure the share price if conditions become less favorable.

If you want to stress test your own view against these two narratives, you can use them as starting points, adjust the revenue growth, margins or fair value to match your expectations, and see where that leaves you relative to today’s US$206.44 share price.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there’s more to the story for BWX Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:BWXT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include BWXT.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

Terms and Privacy Policy

Privacy Dashboard

More Info