Bearish news hits hard! Just now, a sharp plunge! European giants, collapsed!

European weight loss drug giant experiences sudden negative news.

Today, during European trading hours, the stock price of the weight loss giant Novo Nordisk plummeted sharply, dropping over 15% at one point. In pre-market trading in the U.S., Novo Nordisk’s stock also fell more than 14%. The news reports that the company’s next-generation weight loss drug, CagriSema, has shown less effective experimental results compared to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in the United States.

It is worth noting that this year, Novo Nordisk has faced continuous setbacks. The company previously issued a 2026 earnings forecast significantly below market expectations. CEO Mike Døstdar admitted that the company will face “unprecedented pricing pressures” in 2026, and the price reduction of the star weight loss drug Wegovy in the U.S. will have a “painful” financial impact.

European Giant Plummets

On February 23, after the European stock market opened, Novo Nordisk’s stock price plunged straight down, with a drop of over 15% during the session. As of 19:30 Beijing time, the decline remained at 14.9%, reaching the lowest level since June 2021. In pre-market trading in the U.S., Novo Nordisk’s stock also fell more than 14%.

In terms of news, the next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema from Novo Nordisk achieved less weight loss in a trial compared to Eli Lilly’s popular drug.

Novo Nordisk issued a statement saying that subjects treated with the standard dose of CagriSema experienced a weight loss of 20.2% after 84 weeks. In comparison, Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide achieved a weight loss of 23.6%. As a result, Eli Lilly’s stock price surged over 4.5% in pre-market trading in the U.S.

CagriSema is a combination drug developed by Novo Nordisk, containing the long-acting amylin analog Cagrilintide and the GLP-1 receptor agonist semaglutide. In December 2025, this combination was filed for approval in the U.S., with indications for long-term weight reduction and maintenance based on calorie reduction and increased physical activity, for adults with obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²) or overweight (BMI ≥27 kg/m²) with at least one weight-related comorbidity. The FDA is expected to make a decision on this application by the end of 2026.

Novo Nordisk announced that CagriSema did not meet the primary endpoint in the Phase III REDEFINE 4 study comparing it to Tirzepatide.

The REDEFINE 4 study was an 84-week open-label clinical trial (n=809) evaluating the efficacy and safety of CagriSema (2.4mg+2.4mg) versus Tirzepatide (15mg) in obese patients with at least one obesity-related comorbidity.

Patients had an average baseline weight of 114.2 kg. Under an intention-to-treat analysis (all patients who adhered to treatment), after 84 weeks, the weight loss was 23.0% for the CagriSema group and 25.5% for the Tirzepatide group. Under a per-protocol analysis (regardless of adherence), the weight loss was 20.2% and 23.6%, respectively. Overall, the study did not demonstrate non-inferiority.

Tirzepatide is the active ingredient in Eli Lilly’s blockbuster drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have surpassed Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide (marketed as Ozempic and Wegovy) in the U.S. prescription market.

According to Eli Lilly’s recent 2025 financial report, Tirzepatide contributed $36.5 billion in revenue, surpassing Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide to become the “drug king” of 2025 globally. Specifically, the diabetes version of Tirzepatide achieved $22.965 billion in sales, up 99% year-over-year; the weight loss version reached $13.542 billion, up 175%.

Continuous Setbacks

Despite the less favorable trial results compared to Eli Lilly, Mike Døstdar remains highly optimistic about CagriSema, firmly believing its weight loss efficacy surpasses any product on the market.

Novo Nordisk stated that it is exploring additional trial plans to test CagriSema, including higher-dose combination regimens. The company has high hopes for this drug, which combines semaglutide with Cagrilintide—another hormone released by the pancreas that influences appetite.

Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange said, “CagriSema has the potential to be the first GLP-1/amylin combination product approved for obesity treatment, demonstrating that Cagrilintide can enhance the existing effects of semaglutide and provide more significant weight loss benefits than GLP-1 alone. Further trials will evaluate the full weight loss potential of CagriSema.”

Since the beginning of this year, Novo Nordisk has faced continuous setbacks. In early February, the company issued a 2026 earnings forecast significantly below market expectations, projecting a 5% to 13% decline in full-year sales at constant exchange rates, far exceeding analysts’ expected decline of about 1.4%. As a result, its U.S. stock price dropped over 14% in a single day.

The earnings forecast indicates that Novo Nordisk will experience its first annual sales decline in nine years.

Mike Døstdar said that in 2026, Novo Nordisk will face increasing pricing pressures in an increasingly competitive market. Although the global GLP-1 market is expected to continue expanding, policies like the “most favored nation” pricing promoted by U.S. President Trump, along with patent expirations for semaglutide in multiple international markets, will significantly impact revenue.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Sigman pointed out that although Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy tablets have shown initial growth potential, the pricing pressures on injectable GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. are eroding revenue, offsetting the growth momentum brought by new oral drugs.

Additionally, several Wall Street firms have recently lowered their growth forecasts for the global weight loss drug market. Goldman Sachs analysts now expect global obesity drug sales to reach $105 billion by 2030, down from the previous estimate of $130 billion, citing increased price erosion and changing consumer usage patterns.

Jefferies also revised its peak market size forecast downward by 20%, from over $1 trillion by 2030 to $800 billion.