AUD to RMB Exchange Rate Forecast 2026: Analyzing the Rebound Opportunity of the Australian Dollar Based on Commodity Currency Characteristics

As the world’s fifth-largest trading currency, the Australian dollar’s exchange rate fluctuations often have widespread impacts. Investors are concerned not only with the AUD’s performance itself but also with its relative movement against the Chinese yuan — which directly influences cross-border trade and investment returns. So, how is the AUD/CNY exchange rate currently trending? Is there room for the AUD to rebound in the future? The answers to these questions require examining the AUD’s commodity currency nature and multiple economic factors.

A Decade of Decline in AUD and Its Connection to the RMB Exchange Rate: Why Commodity Currencies Have Lost Appeal

The AUD was once a favorite among investors. As a commodity currency, it closely correlates with global raw material prices. Australia’s economy heavily depends on exports of iron ore, coal, copper, and other bulk commodities, making the AUD a “barometer of the global economy.” Additionally, the AUD is a high-yield currency, attracting carry trades and hot money. But this shine has significantly faded over the past decade.

From early 2013’s level of 1.05 to 2023, the AUD/USD has depreciated by over 35%. During the same period, the US dollar index rose by 28.35%, and major currencies like the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar also weakened against the dollar. This isn’t an issue unique to the AUD but part of a global “strong dollar cycle.” However, the impact on the AUD/RMB exchange rate differs — the RMB remains relatively stable, so the AUD’s depreciation against the USD may be partially offset, but the overall trend is still dragged down by the weakening of the AUD against the USD.

What is the fundamental reason for the AUD’s weakness? Analysts point out several:

First, the narrowing interest rate differential. As global central banks enter rate-cutting cycles, the spread between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve has shrunk. Australia’s sluggish economic growth and relatively low asset attractiveness lead to continued capital outflows.

Second, the decline in the commodity currency status. In Q4 2024, the AUD/USD fell about 9.2%, and by early 2025, it dropped to 0.5933 — a five-year low. Rising US tariffs and escalating global trade frictions dampened raw material demand expectations, severely weakening the AUD’s value as a commodity currency.

Third, China’s economic recovery remains weak. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s slowdown and sluggish real estate market have directly reduced demand for iron ore, coal, and other raw materials. This, in turn, weakens the AUD’s performance against the RMB.

AUD Exchange Rate Forecast: Three Key Factors Will Determine the Rebound’s Sustainability

In September 2025, the AUD/USD briefly rose to 0.6636, hitting a new high since November 2024. What’s behind this rebound? Can it be sustained? The key lies in the evolution of three core factors.

Factor 1: RBA policy stance and inflation outlook

In November 2025, the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates steady at 3.6%, signaling caution. In Q3 2025, Australia’s CPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations and indicating that inflation easing is not proceeding smoothly. Core inflation pressures stem mainly from housing construction and services, where price stickiness is strong.

The RBA has stated it will consider further easing only after confirming inflation is on a sustainable downward path. This suggests a much slower rate cut pace than previously expected. From the perspective of the AUD/RMB, if the RBA maintains a relatively hawkish stance while China’s policies remain accommodative, the AUD could receive some support.

Factor 2: US dollar strength and global risk sentiment

On October 30, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut this year. However, Fed Chair Powell’s subsequent comments dampened expectations for further cuts in December. The US dollar index (DXY) has shown resilience since hitting a bottom this summer, rebounding about 3%, with a rising likelihood of surpassing 100.

Generally, a stronger dollar tends to weaken the AUD, as they move inversely. But if the dollar appreciates alongside rising commodity prices (e.g., iron ore, gold), the AUD might get dual support. In such cases, the AUD/RMB exchange rate will also depend on the RMB’s relative performance — if the RMB weakens against the USD, the AUD/RMB could stay relatively high.

Factor 3: China’s economic recovery and raw material demand

This is the most critical variable for the AUD’s long-term trend. Australia’s economy is highly resource-dependent, with China as its largest buyer. When China’s economy recovers strongly, prices of iron ore, coal, natural gas, and other commodities tend to rise, benefiting the AUD. The rebound in the second half of 2025 has been driven by soaring iron ore and gold prices.

However, the key question is whether China’s recovery can be sustained. If the real estate market remains sluggish and consumer spending weakens, long-term demand for raw materials will decline, removing a major support for the AUD. Under such circumstances, the AUD/RMB exchange rate could face downward pressure.

Multi-Currency Pair Forecasts: China’s Economy as a Key Variable

Based on the above factors, we can forecast the AUD’s performance against major currencies.

AUD/CNY Outlook

The AUD and RMB exchange rate faces an interesting paradox: the AUD is generally weakening against the USD, but the RMB is also under depreciation pressure against the USD. Therefore, the AUD/CNY performance will lie somewhere in between.

Key influences include: stability of Sino-Australian trade relations, the RMB’s USD exchange rate trend, and China’s raw material demand. Despite uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations in 2025, some easing signals (like US tariff reductions) could support the RMB, which in turn would help keep the AUD/CNY from falling too sharply.

Short-term forecast: AUD/CNY may fluctuate between 4.6 and 4.75. If the RMB weakens due to domestic economic pressures, the AUD/CNY could briefly rise toward 4.8. But if China’s economic recovery stalls, and raw material demand remains subdued, the AUD may weaken further, pulling AUD/CNY down.

AUD/USD Outlook

The AUD/USD remains the most traded pair. Currently around 0.65, market opinions vary.

Major institutions’ forecasts differ: Morgan Stanley expects the AUD to rise to 0.72 by late 2025, supported by hawkish RBA policies and commodity prices. UBS is more cautious, expecting the AUD to stay near 0.68 due to global trade uncertainties and Fed policy. CBA economists warn that the AUD’s recovery may be short-lived, expecting a peak around March 2026 before a decline, as the US economy’s resilience could strengthen the dollar again.

Technically, the AUD needs to break above 0.6450 to confirm an uptrend. If it holds above that, next targets are 0.6464 (200-day moving average) and 0.6500 psychological level. Falling below 0.6373 could see a drop toward 0.6300.

AUD/MYR Outlook

As an Asian currency pair, AUD/MYR reflects regional economic differences. Malaysia’s economy also depends on exports and raw materials, making the ringgit sensitive to commodity prices. If global demand remains stable, the ringgit could strengthen relative to the AUD.

However, Australia’s economic weakness may limit AUD rebounds, especially amid trade tensions. Expect AUD/MYR to fluctuate between 3.0 and 3.15. Further economic softening in Australia could push the pair toward 3.0 support.

Investment Strategies for the AUD: Technical and Fundamental Approaches

For investors looking to position in the AUD, here are differentiated short-, medium-, and long-term strategies.

Short-term (1-3 days): Range trading around key levels

The AUD is currently in a technical consolidation with fundamental tug-of-war. It’s advisable to trade within the range of 0.6370–0.6450, waiting for breakout signals.

Long entry: Break above 0.6450 on AUD/USD, aiming for targets at 0.6464 and 0.6500. Catalysts include weaker-than-expected US GDP or non-farm data (suggesting possible Fed rate cuts), or higher-than-expected Australian CPI. Stop-loss below 0.6420.

Short entry: Break below 0.6373, targeting 0.6336 or 0.6300. Catalysts include strong US data or cooling Australian inflation. Stop-loss above 0.6400.

Avoid trading before major data releases, as volatility will increase around US GDP, core PCE, and Australian CPI announcements.

Medium-term (1-3 weeks): Trend-following based on policy signals

The medium-term direction depends on key signals:

Bullish scenario: Weak US employment data, falling inflation, and easing trade tensions could boost risk sentiment, lifting the AUD and AUD/RMB. Targets could be 0.6550–0.6600 on AUD/USD. A break above the 200-day MA (0.6464) would confirm a reversal, prompting increased long positions.

Bearish scenario: Strong US economic data, delayed Fed rate cuts, and a resilient dollar could push the AUD down toward 0.6250. Risks include poor Australian trade data or weak Chinese economic indicators.

Long-term (over 3 months): Dollar-cost averaging and position building

If bullish on the AUD long-term, consider scaling into positions during dips, smoothing out short-term volatility. Confirmed breakouts of key resistance levels can justify larger allocations. A sustained high AUD/RMB rate also enhances long-term appeal.

Overall Outlook and Risk Warning

The AUD is at a critical juncture. In the short term, expect oscillation within 0.6370–0.6450; a breakout could signal the next trend. The medium- and long-term depends heavily on US monetary policy shifts and global trade developments.

Investors should monitor: whether the RBA initiates rate cuts, the pace of China’s economic recovery, whether the US dollar breaks above 100, and commodity price trends. If data this week heightens rate cut expectations, it could be an opportunity to go long; otherwise, beware of dollar rebound risks.

Reminder: All investments carry risks. The AUD is volatile, and forex trading is high risk. Investors may lose all capital. Stay alert to market sentiment around data releases and adjust strategies accordingly, emphasizing risk management.