Platinum Forecast 2025/2026: From the Forgotten to a Speculation Opportunity

The year 2025 surprised the investment world: while gold prices steadily reached new all-time highs—over $5,500 per ounce by the end of January 2026—platinum markets experienced an even more dramatic transformation. Starting in June 2025, a true rally began, propelling the long-neglected commodity from below $1,000 to over $2,900 per ounce within just a few months. A price increase of over 200% in one year brought platinum investors gains that significantly outperformed traditional precious metals. But the story is more complex: this forecast for 2025/2026 shows that the rally didn’t come out of nowhere but is rooted in structural market developments.

The Long Sleep of Platinum – A Historical Anomaly

To understand the current situation, it’s worth looking back. For decades, platinum was the king of precious metals—in 2014, it traded at over $1,500 per ounce, well above gold. This situation completely reversed. The decade from 2015 to mid-2025 was a test of patience for platinum investors: prices moved sideways, often around the $1,000 mark. At times, early 2020, platinum even fell below $600—a level that caused despair among investors.

What was the reason? The most traditional use of platinum, diesel catalysis in the automotive industry, suffered a massive demand drop. As the shift toward electrification accelerated and the move away from diesel began, industrial demand for platinum declined simultaneously. Stock markets favored other raw materials conceptually. However, from a value investing perspective, this neglect represented a classic undervaluation.

Five Years or One Hour – Why the 2026 Forecast Looks Different Now

Gold has been producing continuous gains over the past decade: +331% over ten years, +165% over five. Platinum lagged significantly with +132% (ten years) and +81% (five). But this picture changed dramatically—especially in the last year of the forecast. With a +110% annual increase, platinum surpassed gold (+70%) for the first time in a long while. This was no coincidence but the result of a perfect interplay of multiple market factors.

This shift explains the unusual market anomaly of the 2025/2026 forecast: despite a nearly supernatural rally, platinum still traded about $2,700 below gold in early 2026. The so-called platinum-gold ratio—the quotient of their prices—remains stubbornly below 1, even though platinum is much rarer than gold.

What Drives the 2026 Forecast: A Market in Scarcity

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has forecasted a fascinating scenario for 2026: after three consecutive deficit years, the council expects a nearly balanced market with a tiny surplus of only 20,000 ounces (koz). This is with total demand of 7,385 koz and total supply of 7,404 koz—an extremely fragile equilibrium.

But why is this relevant for your investment outlook? The answer lies in the supply structure: South Africa dominates global platinum production with 70-80%. The country has been battling chronic underinvestment, power outages, and political uncertainties for years. Production there fell by 5% in 2025, reaching the lowest level in five years. Such a structural deficit cannot simply be resolved through price increases—the infrastructure is simply not there.

Recycling rates are also rising: higher platinum prices incentivize automakers to refurbish old catalysts. An increase of about 10% in recycling is expected for 2026. This stabilizes supply but also acts as an invisible price ceiling.

Demand Trends: Industrial Comeback Instead of Automotive Crisis

Demand presents a nuanced picture. The WPIC expects a 6% overall decline in demand for 2026. At first glance, this sounds bearish, but it hides interesting details:

The automotive sector is expected to shrink by about 3—but this is only a moderate decline, not a collapse. Notably, the jewelry sector could increase by approximately 30-37% in bar and coin investments, signaling strong retail-driven demand for physical platinum.

The industrial sector—traditionally glass manufacturing, chemicals, medical technology—shows even growth tendencies. The WPIC anticipates an expansion in glass capacity, generating additional platinum demand. At the same time, future technologies become more relevant: fuel cells for hydrogen economy and green hydrogen electrolyzers could add an extra 875,000 to 900,000 ounces of platinum demand by 2030.

This long-term outlook for the coming years is bullish: WPIC forecasts that after the balanced 2026, deficits will return at least until 2029. Above-ground inventories could shrink significantly—a classic scarcity dynamic supporting prices.

The Analyst Perspective: A Range from Bearish to Bullish

Where do professional forecasts land for 2026? The range reflects ongoing uncertainty:

• Heraeus Precious Metals: $1,300–$1,800
• Bank of America Securities Global Research: $2,450
• Commerzbank: $1,800

This spread reveals a problem: some analysts expect a significant correction from current levels (above $2,000), while others see room for further gains. The forecast is influenced by two factors: first, the extreme illiquidity of the platinum market (only about 73,500 NYMEX contracts open interest, a fraction of gold’s market), and second, the unpredictable demand development in the hydrogen sector.

Extreme Volatility: The Market Shows Its Edges

To underscore the relevance of the 2025/2026 forecast, a reality check: after the historic high of $2,925 on January 26, 2026, platinum dropped 35.7% within six trading days to $1,882—then recovered nearly 20% in a single day, jumping over $2,250. These volatility extremes are symptomatic of a market that can fall apart at any moment.

The reasons are structural: with only 73,500 futures contracts (roughly $8.3 billion in notional value), the platinum market is a lightweight trading arena compared to gold (over $200 billion). Any stronger capital flow causes disproportionate price jumps. The 2026 forecast must take this reality seriously: volatility is not a bug but a feature of this market.

Four Fate Factors for the 2026/2027 Forecast

For attentive observers, four trigger events will dominate future price developments:

1. The US Federal Reserve and interest rate outlook: Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Lisa Cook and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair suggest a slower pace of rate cuts. A stagnant or rising interest rate environment generally supports the US dollar—and puts downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

2. The US dollar itself: A weak dollar benefits platinum (buyers outside the dollar zone pay less), while a strong dollar acts as a price brake. The 2026 forecast partly depends on exchange rate movements.

3. Geopolitics and trade conflicts: Tensions between the US and Iran, ongoing tariff discussions, and trade blockades create uncertainty. These “risk premium” dynamics can push commodity prices in either direction.

4. Substitution risk: As platinum prices rise further, automakers might switch to palladium as a cheaper alternative—a classic price ceiling scenario.

Additionally, a fifth factor many underestimate: physical platinum lease rates. They signal market tightness and can serve as early warning indicators for price developments.

Investment Logic: Trading vs. Portfolio Hedge

Which investor type benefits from the 2025/2026 forecast?

Active traders find platinum’s high volatility offers classic profit opportunities. Recent price jumps of over 40% followed by corrections of 35% within days are ideal for trend-following strategies. Using leverage and CFDs, traders can operate with a straightforward system:

Technical setup (trend-following classic): fast moving average (10-day) versus slow moving average (30-day). When the fast crosses above the slow, open a leveraged position (e.g., 5x leverage). When it crosses below, close the position. Key: strict risk management—risk only 1-2% of total capital per trade, place stop-loss 2% below entry.

Practical example: with €10,000 capital, max risk per trade is €100 → with 5x leverage, position size max €1,000. Due to platinum’s low liquidity, extra caution is needed to avoid gaps and slippage risks.

Conservative long-term investors can use platinum as a portfolio component. Its supply and demand dynamics often move counter to equities, providing hedging benefits. Suitable instruments include ETCs, ETFs, or physical platinum. The allocation should be tailored individually, but increased volatility requires regular rebalancing and combining with other precious metals.

Investment Options: From Physical to Derivatives

The 2025/2026 forecast also influences which investment forms make sense:

• Physical platinum (coins, bars): authenticity assured but high storage and transaction costs
• ETCs/ETFs: convenient, low fees, easy to hold
• Platinum stocks (e.g., Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater): participate in price increases but carry company-specific risks
• Futures and options: for professionals, high risk with high reward
• CFDs: leverage playground for active traders with moderate capital

Conclusion of the Forecast: Exciting but Not Free Pass

The 2025/2026 forecast for platinum is fascinating because it combines two narratives: the structural supply deficit and South African production crises point to long-term higher prices. The hydrogen economy could trigger a new demand wave from 2027/2028. At the same time, declining automotive demand, potential investor profit-taking after the rally, and a strong dollar could cause corrections in 2026.

For bold traders, this uncertainty offers exciting opportunities. For long-term investors, platinum is an interesting addition—provided their portfolio can handle the increased volatility. The forecast suggests platinum has finally awakened from its slumber. Whether the price gains are sustainable will be revealed in 2026.