Cenovus Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Spark Fresh Look At TSX:CVE Valuation

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 9:19 AM GMT+9 3 min read

In this article:

CVE

-2.42%

MEG.TO

GC=F

+1.69%

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Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) is drawing fresh attention after its Q4 and full year 2025 results, with higher net income, record upstream production, and confirmed dividends giving investors new information to assess the stock.

See our latest analysis for Cenovus Energy.

At a share price of CA$30.88, Cenovus has logged a 20.06% 1 month share price return and a 22.54% 3 month share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 54.36% reflects recent momentum following record upstream production, the MEG Energy acquisition, and ongoing dividends.

If Cenovus’s move has you rethinking your energy exposure, it could be a good moment to scan other resource names using our list of 25 elite gold producer stocks as potential ideas.

With Cenovus trading close to analyst targets yet flagged with an intrinsic discount score, the key question now is simple: are you looking at an undervalued integrated producer, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.8% Overvalued

The most followed narrative pegs Cenovus’s fair value at CA$29.18, slightly below the CA$30.88 last close. This puts more attention on the assumptions behind that gap.

Cenovus Energy’s updated analyst price target edges higher to CA$29.18 from CA$29.06, with analysts pointing to management quality, shareholder alignment, free cash flow generation and recent portfolio shifts as key factors supporting the revised view.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is really driving that CA$29.18 fair value? The narrative leans heavily on cash generation, portfolio reshaping and a richer earnings multiple. The full story connects those moving parts into one valuation path.

Result: Fair Value of CA$29.18 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are clear watchpoints here, including Canadian regulatory uncertainty that could pressure costs, as well as oil sands exposure that may face long term demand and financing risk.

Find out about the key risks to this Cenovus Energy narrative.

Another Take: Multiples Point The Other Way

The narrative model estimates Cenovus is 5.8% overvalued at CA$29.18, but the simple P/E check tells a different story. At 14.8x earnings, the shares trade well below the Canadian Oil and Gas average of 17.4x, the peer average of 21.4x, and a reference ratio of 20x. That gap suggests the market is still applying a clear discount, so the question is whether this reflects caution or a potential opening.

La historia continúa  

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:CVE P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

If the mixed signals in this article leave you unsure, it is worth reviewing the numbers yourself and deciding where you stand. You can start with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop at one energy name when there is a whole market of possibilities; broaden your watchlist now so you are not reacting after the fact.

Target strong fundamentals first by scanning companies in our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (9 results). Focus on those that pair robust finances with business models you can comfortably hold through different cycles.

Hunt for potential mispriced opportunities using the 6 high quality undervalued stocks, where solid financials meet prices that sit below fair value estimates based on our data.

Build a portfolio with income at its core by reviewing the 6 dividend fortresses, a focused list of higher yielding names for investors who prize regular cash returns.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include CVE.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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