The factors driving future gold price trends: The year of change in the resource market

At the start of 2026, the world saw an unexpected shift in gold price trends, with prices soaring past the $5,600 per ounce mark. This raises important questions for Thai investors: this event isn’t just a temporary adjustment but a sign of deep structural changes in the global financial system. Let’s analyze where future gold price trends might lead us.

Diversification of Reserves and Central Bank Demand

The main driver behind this year’s gold price surge is the rational decisions of central banks worldwide. Under the principle of de-dollarization, emerging market central banks—such as China, India, Poland, and Brazil—seek to reduce risks associated with freezing reserves (think of the case with Russia). They are increasingly turning to gold as a primary risk diversification tool.

Data shows that central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years. In 2026, total purchases are expected to reach 755 tons. Although this may be slightly lower than the peak levels of 2024-2025, it remains above the ten-year average. A key insight is that every net purchase of 100 tons from highly confident buyers tends to push gold prices up by about 1.7% on average.

Additionally, demand from institutional investors and funds worldwide has increased significantly. The proportion of gold in global financial portfolios has risen to 2.8% this year. While this may seem small, considering the total assets under management (AUM), it represents a massive influx of capital.

Complex Relationship Between the Thai Baht and Gold Price Trends in Thailand

When gold reaches 70,000 THB per gram, this isn’t solely due to rising global gold prices but also internal factors within Thailand’s financial system. Recently, the Thai baht appreciated to levels not seen in nearly five years, reaching 30.88 THB per USD.

This phenomenon, called the “Gold-BAHT Correlation,” explains that Thai investors and gold traders sell gold to realize profits when prices rise, then convert the foreign currency proceeds into Thai baht in large volumes. Although this may seem economically illogical, it has real effects on the foreign exchange market. Data indicates that transactions related to gold trading account for up to 35% of all foreign exchange trading volume in Thailand.

This situation prompted the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to consider new measures to curb short-term speculation while protecting market interests. In 2026, the BOT announced three measures: reporting large transactions over 20 million THB per trade; setting a daily trading cap of around 50-100 million THB per person; and promoting online gold trading in USD to reduce the need for currency exchange.

International Uncertainty and Rising Gold Risks

The main event triggering a surge in safe-haven buying was the “Greenland Crisis” in early 2026, when the U.S. proposed controlling the island for its natural resources and strategic military importance. Although a “Davos compromise” was reached on January 21, 2026, it damaged trust between the U.S. and European allies.

Gold prices soared to $5,600 amid heightened tensions, as investors moved capital out of risky assets into safe havens. International uncertainty has become the “new normal,” forcing investors to rethink asset allocation in this new landscape.

Global Financial Institutions’ Outlook: The Upward Trend in Gold Prices

Leading global financial institutions have shifted their outlooks to a predominantly bullish stance, viewing the gold price trend as entering a new valuation phase.

Goldman Sachs targets a year-end price of $5,400 per ounce, citing strong demand from emerging market private and central banks as key drivers. They believe this demand stabilizes prices and prevents declines, with an average monthly purchase of 60 tons.

J.P. Morgan is more bullish, projecting an average of around $5,055 in Q4 2026 and possibly reaching $5,400 in 2027. Their analysts note that the “strength is not waning,” as gold’s portfolio share remains low.

Bank of America sets a high target of $6,000, emphasizing U.S. public debt and fiat currency concerns.

Conversely, HSBC adopts a more conservative view, with an average of $3,950 for 2026, and Citi at $3,250, assuming easing tensions and a strengthening dollar. However, given ongoing Greenland and debt issues, the bullish outlook is based on more fundamental reasons.

Investment Tools: Turning Gold Price Trends into Income

The question “Is it still timely to buy now?” is answered with a firm yes—“timely, but not chasing prices.” While the bullish trend continues, the high historic levels increase volatility.

Key technical levels:

• The $5,000 mark is a psychological barrier. Staying above it targets $5,600 and $6,000.
• If prices fall, the $4,680–$4,750 zone is a strong support for accumulation.
• Falling below that, major supports are at $4,360–$4,450.

Investors should watch the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which may enter overbought territory near $5,000, signaling potential short-term profit-taking.

Investment options:

Physical gold investment faces limitations such as large capital requirements (over 70,000 THB) and liquidity issues.

A more popular alternative is trading CFDs (Contracts for Difference) via international platforms, offering advantages like:

• Lower initial capital due to leverage
• Ability to profit from both rising and falling prices
• High liquidity, 24/7 trading
• Lower costs and narrow spreads

However, leverage also increases risk, so proper stop-loss settings are essential.

Conclusion: Continued Opportunities in Gold Prices

The future trend of gold in 2026 and beyond reflects a world shifting toward structural uncertainty. Maintaining prices above $5,000 per ounce is not accidental but a result of changing global financial systems, geopolitical tensions, and declining global economic confidence.

For Thai investors, this scenario offers opportunities to balance portfolios—through traditional physical gold investments and modern financial instruments—allowing flexible response to evolving trends. Overall, gold remains one of the most versatile assets for risk hedging, with potential to reach $6,000 if structural factors continue in this direction.

Note: Investing involves risks and may not suit everyone. Please conduct thorough research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.