Increased inventory across multiple segments of the photovoltaic industry during the Spring Festival period; improvements are expected after the holiday.

Staff Reporter Yin Gaofeng

On February 24, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network released its first photovoltaic industry chain price analysis report after the Spring Festival. During the holiday, silicon wafer prices remained stable, and low-priced orders in the market are decreasing.

Before the Spring Festival, silicon wafer prices had been declining for several consecutive weeks. “The prices of silicon wafers continued to fall before the festival, mainly because winter is the off-season for photovoltaic installations, downstream demand decreases, manufacturers’ inventories keep rising, and cash flow pressures grow daily, forcing them to sell at lower prices to move volume,” said Qu Fang, an investment advisor at Wanlian Securities, in an interview with Securities Daily.

According to the report from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the silicon wafer production in February 2026 decreased by over 3%, with the actual reduction slightly higher than expected. During the holiday, silicon wafer inventories continued to increase. After fluctuations in silver prices, it is expected that battery manufacturers will resume work after the holiday, and silicon wafers may enter an inventory reduction cycle.

“Currently, the market transaction for silicon wafers is poor, with low operating rates. After the Spring Festival, downstream companies have started operations one after another, which is expected to boost some procurement,” said a staff member of a photovoltaic company to Securities Daily.

In the battery cell segment, the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network report shows that in February, the global battery cell production within the sample decreased by 11% month-on-month, and domestic production decreased by 12% month-on-month.

The report analyzes that due to weak market demand influenced by downstream component demand and fluctuations in silver prices, battery manufacturers’ willingness to operate has declined. In February, manufacturers will prioritize clearing existing inventories and will evaluate production plans based on demand and cost expectations in March to minimize operational losses caused by cost transmission delays.

The report states that during the Spring Festival, downstream procurement sentiment was low, with little actual transaction activity in the domestic market and very few effective orders. With the tax rebate policy window approaching in April, it is expected that the inventory levels of battery cells will improve after the holiday.

According to previous announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding adjustments to export tax rebate policies for products like photovoltaics, starting April 1, 2026, value-added tax export rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled.

“Before the cancellation of export tax rebates, overseas end-user companies will rapidly increase order demand during the window period. As the date approaches, short-term exports of modules are expected to rise, and module production is likely to increase, driving industry demand,” said Zheng Tianhong, senior photovoltaic analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, in an interview with Securities Daily.

“With the continuous high prices of raw materials like silver paste, slowing downstream demand, and persistently low product prices, the industry’s capacity clearance may accelerate further,” said Qu Fang.

Wang Bihua, an advisor to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, stated at the “2025 Development Review and 2026 Outlook Seminar” held before the Spring Festival that China’s new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 is expected to be between 180 GW and 240 GW.

According to data from the National Energy Administration, China’s new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 was 315 GW, which indicates a significant decline in the scale of photovoltaic installations in 2026 compared to 2025.

“This will push companies to further reduce costs and improve efficiency through technological innovation. Leading companies with comprehensive advantages—such as technology, scale, channels, and capital—may see their market share increase further,” said Qu Fang. “The photovoltaic industry is shifting from ‘scale competition’ to ‘value competition,’ and the industry landscape is accelerating its reshaping. Companies lacking technological advantages and cost control capabilities will be eliminated more quickly.”

“High-quality, high-standard, and high-premium photovoltaic products are becoming the main path for breaking the market,” Zheng Tianhong said. “The impact of low-price competition will continue to diminish.”

(Edited by Cai Shandan)