2026년 금 시세 전망: 글로벌 금시장 강세 배경 분석

Interest in the 2026 gold price outlook is increasing. The upward trend in gold prices since last year reflects structural market changes, not just short-term fluctuations. As economic uncertainty grows and geopolitical tensions escalate, the value of gold as a safe haven is being reevaluated.

Fundamental Background for Global Gold Price Rise

To understand why gold prices continue to rise, we need to look at changes in the international economic system. Several countries are implementing de-dollarization policies, significantly increasing demand for gold. In efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar, nations are promoting the internationalization of their own currencies, such as the yuan and rupee, while also increasing holdings of tangible assets like gold.

China is actively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, while countries like Russia and Iran, subject to US sanctions, are seeking to escape the dollar-based system. These changes are leading to a structural increase in demand for gold, which is expected to exert upward pressure on prices over the coming years.

Geopolitical Instability and Gold’s Safe-Haven Value

The worsening global economic environment also supports a positive outlook for gold prices. As geopolitical instability increases, investors flock to safe assets like gold. During the 2008 global financial crisis, gold prices surged sharply, and during the 2011 European debt crisis, they rose again, reaffirming gold’s status as a safe haven.

Recent intensification of US-China trade tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and instability in the Middle East continue to worsen investor sentiment. In such situations, gold functions as a “reliable refuge,” and as the likelihood of recession in developed countries increases, demand for gold is expected to grow even further.

Relationship Between Interest Rate Cuts and Gold Demand

Central bank interest rate cuts are also a key factor driving gold prices higher. When interest rates fall, yields on savings accounts and bonds decrease, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. From an investor’s perspective, gold becomes more attractive as it offers no interest income.

Furthermore, rate cuts are often implemented in response to economic weakness or recession fears, signaling high market uncertainty. As a result, investors tend to sell risky assets and shift funds into gold, accelerating capital flows into the precious metal.

Domestic and International Gold Price Status

As of mid-January, domestic gold prices reached around 952,000 won per 3.75g (1 don), a rise of over 76% compared to the same period last year’s 541,000 won. The consistent upward trend in the domestic market has persisted throughout the year.

International gold prices are approximately $4,585 per ounce, about 6% higher than at the start of the year and roughly 38% higher than six months ago. This indicates a steep upward trajectory, with domestic and global gold prices moving in a strongly correlated manner.

2026 Gold Price Outlook: Expert Opinions Summary

Major international financial institutions generally have a positive outlook for gold prices in 2026. JP Morgan predicts that gold could reach $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Goldman Sachs also sees potential for further gains mid-year.

HSBC is more optimistic, suggesting gold could hit $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, but also warns of increased price volatility. This highlights the importance of risk management even amid an upward trend.

Overall, the outlook for gold prices in 2026 remains bullish. However, some forecasts suggest possible price corrections in the second half, so investors should prepare comprehensive risk management strategies.

Investment Considerations and Cautions for Gold Price Outlook

Investors who decide to invest in gold can expect the current strong upward trend to continue. However, this expectation relies on the continued presence of structural factors such as de-dollarization policies, geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown risks, and rate cuts.

If any of these factors change—such as a faster-than-expected global economic recovery or easing of geopolitical tensions—gold prices could diverge significantly from current projections. For example, if the global economy recovers unexpectedly quickly or tensions ease, capital might shift toward higher-risk assets. Therefore, maintaining proper position management and setting loss limits are essential when considering gold investments.