Wondering What to Expect for Next Year's Social Security COLA? Here's What History Says Could Be Coming in 2027.

Retirees only just started receiving their 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in January of this year, but many are already looking forward to their next raise in 2027.

To be clear, the official 2027 COLA will not be announced until October. That said, there’s still valuable information retirees can glean from history. Here’s what you need to know.

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What’s the projected COLA for 2027?

Because the COLA is based on third-quarter inflation data, there’s no way to get a 100% accurate idea of where the 2027 adjustment might land just yet.

If inflation rates change substantially between now and the end of September, the COLA could be wildly different from any of today’s estimates. Also, uncertainty around tariffs could lead to even more fluctuations in future inflation rates.

Based on current inflation rates and economic conditions, however, analysts at nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League estimate that 2027’s COLA will be 2.8% – the same as this year’s. The Congressional Budget Office offers a slightly more optimistic estimate of 3.1% for next year.

What history says about future COLAs

If history can tell us anything about future adjustments, it’s that they likely won’t go as far as they should.

COLAs are designed to help benefits maintain their buying power over time. However, they’ve struggled to do that in recent years.

Between 2010 and 2024, Social Security benefits lost 20% of their buying power, according to research from The Senior Citizens League. Furthermore, during that period, there were only five years in which the COLA outpaced that year’s inflation rate.

Millions of retirees depend on their benefits to make ends meet in retirement. But if Social Security continues losing buying power, it could become increasingly difficult to rely on your monthly checks.

What you can do to protect your retirement

Annual COLAs may be out of your control, but there are other moves you can make to build a more financially secure future.

If you haven’t yet claimed Social Security, delaying filing for benefits could increase your payments by hundreds of dollars per month. In fact, the average retiree collects around $851 more per month at age 70 than at 62, according to 2025 data from the Social Security Administration.

For those who are already retired, your options are more limited. If you can swing it, building a source of passive income can help supplement your benefits and reduce your dependence on Social Security. Otherwise, simply keeping realistic expectations about how far your benefits will go can help protect your retirement as much as possible.