2028 Global Intelligence Crisis Simulation: AI Too Successful, Could Trigger the Next Major Recession?

This article on the foreign website, "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," has gone viral. The author is an analyst who successfully shorted Silicon Valley Bank and early on bet on Nvidia. Citrini Research emphasizes: this is not a prediction, but a simulation.
It assumes we are in 2028, looking back at the past two years of collapse:
• Unemployment in the U.S. soars to over 10%
• The S&P 500 plunges 38% from its 2026 high
• The global economy falls into a deep recession
And the root cause of all this is not AI failure, but AI being too successful.
1. Why is this time different?
Historically, every technological revolution has seen displaced workers find new jobs—because new roles still require humans. But this time, the tasks you want to switch to are also mastered by AI.
The fundamental difference between AI and tools like excavators or computers is: the more you use it, the stronger it gets; the smarter and cheaper it becomes; the faster it penetrates; the more data it gathers; and the more data it has, the smarter it gets. Once this flywheel starts turning, there’s almost no reason for it to slow down.
In the past, the core cost unit for companies was "headcount": wages, social security, vacations—people get tired, leave.
In the future, the core cost unit will be "Tokens": they don’t get tired or leave. When a group of Tokens can do 80% of a person’s work at just 1% of the cost, it’s not competition—it’s substitution.
2. Crisis timeline: from white-collar layoffs to financial collapse
The simulation timeline in the report points to systemic risks at every step:
2025–2026: Initial Impact
• Breakthroughs in AI programming tools
• SaaS companies face pricing pressure from customer “self-build” alternatives
• ServiceNow lays off 15%, stock plunges 18%
• The first wave of white-collar layoffs officially begins
2026–2027: Impact Spreads
• Consumer AI agents optimize business processes, directly bypassing middlemen
• Stablecoin alternatives threaten Visa/Mastercard’s fee income
• Private credit defaults accelerate, software leveraged buyouts collapse
• Zendesk becomes “the largest private credit software default event in history”
3. Domino Effect: From Elite Consumption to Universal Unemployment
A shocking figure in the report: the top 10% of income earners in the U.S. support over half of all consumption.
As AI replaces many high-paying jobs, this group stops spending: restaurants close, malls become deserted, renovations halt—ultimately affecting everyone.
The economy is like a row of dominoes; the first one to fall may be far from you, but the last one could be right at your doorstep.
The biggest information gap now isn’t technical but cognitive. Most people still see AI as just a tool, but the truth is: AI is becoming the very workforce itself.