Galaxy Futures: Orders are mostly completed during the Spring Festival, and the spot price of urea has limited room for correction

Domestic gas-head maintenance units have resumed operation, with daily production increasing to over 210,000 tons, continuing to set new records. International market prices remain firm and rising; over the weekend, India issued a tender for 1.5 million tons with shipping scheduled for the end of March. Currently, the price gap between domestic and international markets remains large, but no new quotas are available domestically, so the overall impact is limited. The operating rates of compound fertilizer plants in Central China and Northeast China have declined due to significant inventory backlog of finished products. Some compound fertilizer plants in Henan have shut down extensively, and in Linyi, compound fertilizer and board factories are reducing their load. Raw material inventories are generally high, leading to low-price procurement. Storage companies have reached over 80% of their reserves; international prices continue to rise, affecting sentiment, but domestic quotas are nearly exhausted. As gas-head units recover, urea supply hits new highs, while the operating rates of compound fertilizer plants begin to decline. Downstream buyers are increasingly resistant to high prices. Urea producers show some differentiation in order issuance; nearing the end of the year, manufacturers have order-taking needs. Today’s futures prices are steadily rising; low-price producers are still able to take orders, while the overall spot market in high-price zones shows a moderate atmosphere. As companies continue to place orders and supplies are ample, orders for the Spring Festival are mostly fulfilled, leaving limited room for spot price correction. Cautious trading is advised for futures. (Galaxy Futures)