Galaxy Futures: Recommend observing before the European market holiday, focus on the risk of the Iran situation

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-24T13:51:20+00:00

Spot freight rates are as follows: MSKWK10 Shanghai–Rotterdam quotes $2,000 per 40HC, unchanged from last week. London/Hamburg quotes are $2,100–$2,200. Spot freight rates remain weak, and the bullish outlook has softened. HPL for February online has dropped to around 1,835, with a declared increase to 3,100 in March; OA for March in the first half of the month has generally declared increases to over $3,000 per FEU, including OOCL's online quote of $3,100 in the first half of March, COSCO's declared increase to $3,100 in March, CMA's online rate in the first half of February dropped to around $2,300, with a declared increase to $3,100 in March, and Evergreen's late February voyages decreased to around $2,300; YML's offline rate in February is around $2,000; ONE's online rate in the first half of February decreased to around $2,000; MSC's rate in the first half of February dropped to 2,140, with a declared increase to $3,000 per FEU in the first half of March. Attention is on the follow-up implementation of these declared increases. From a fundamental perspective, demand-side, cargo volume is gradually...

K-LinePoet

2026-02-24 13:51:20

Spot freight rates remain weak, with MSKWK10 Shanghai–Rotterdam quoted at $2,000 per 40HC, unchanged from last week. London/Hamburg rates are at $2,100–$2,200. Expectations for price increases have eased. HPL for February online dropped to around 1,835, with March announced at 3,100. OA for March in the first half of the month mostly announced at over $3,000 per FEU, including OOCL at $3,100 online in early March, COSCO announcing $3,100, CMA’s first half of March online rate down to around $2,300, with a March announcement of $3,100. Evergreen’s late February voyages dropped to around $2,300; YML for February offline around $2,000; ONE in the first half of February online rate decreased to around $2,000; MSC in the first half of February down to 2,140, with a March announcement of $3,000 per FEU. Monitoring the follow-up implementation of these announced increases.

From a fundamental perspective, demand has gradually peaked and started to decline. On the supply side, as of February 9, 2026, the weekly average capacity for the Shanghai–Northern Europe five ports in February, March, and April was 253,300, 288,700, and 259,800 TEU respectively. Overall, capacity deployment has not changed much compared to the previous period. After the Spring Festival, capacity in the first week of March was limited, but weekly capacity gradually increased with resumption of work and production. Traditionally, the peak season for freight rates is from February to April, and since the implementation of the export tax rebate cancellation policy starting April 1, the market has expected a phase of rush shipping, though the current rush is less intense than expected.

Geopolitically, the situation remains volatile. It is still difficult for a large number of ships to resume service on the Europe route in the first half of the year. Risks related to Iran persist, with ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Middle Eastern military deployments to watch. (Galaxy Futures)

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