AI concerns add to tariff risks, US stocks fall more than 1% across the board, spot gold reclaims above $5,200.

On Monday, February 23, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks closed lower across the board, with all three major indices falling more than 1%. Tensions around tariffs were reignited by Trump, coupled with growing concerns over AI, boosting safe-haven demand. Gold and silver surged, with spot gold reclaiming the $5,200 level. A hypothetical AI research report and a new use case for Anthropic’s products heightened market fears of AI disrupting traditional business models.

【U.S. Stock Indices】

At the close, the S&P 500 fell 1.04% to 6,837.75; the Dow Jones dropped 1.66% to 48,804.06; the Nasdaq declined 1.13% to 22,627.27.

First, tariff risks reemerged as a major uncertainty. According to CCTV News, last Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that its large-scale tariff policies were “ultra vires.” On the same day, Trump announced a 10% increase in import tariffs, and the next day, he raised the global tariff rate to 15%. Trump also warned Monday that any country attempting to “play tricks” with the Supreme Court ruling would face higher tariffs and more severe consequences. Nonetheless, the EU decided to suspend approval of trade agreements with the U.S. and Europe, adding to uncertainties in U.S.-EU trade relations.

Additionally, Democratic senators proposed legislation to push the Trump administration to refund over $100 billion in tariffs already collected, escalating conflicts between Trump and Congress and increasing uncertainty.

Analysts note that the tariff war itself stems from U.S. uncertainties, which are unfavorable for the dollar. The Supreme Court’s ruling adds to this uncertainty, as Trump may restart the tariff war using yet-unrevealed legal tools.

Furthermore, a fictional AI research report acted as a catalyst for the stock decline. Citrini Research released a report last weekend, based on a “macro study published in June 2028,” projecting the impact of AI advancements and widespread adoption of intelligent agents on society and the economy.

The report states that, as AI significantly boosts productivity, nominal GDP and productivity will appear very high but disconnected from real economic cycles. Companies will replace white-collar jobs with AI to cut costs and increase profit margins, but this will sharply reduce workers’ incomes, collapsing consumer spending. To further cut costs, firms will increase AI investments, creating a vicious negative feedback loop.

The stocks of companies mentioned in the report, such as food delivery platform DoorDash, Blackstone, and American Express, were notably affected, falling over 6%, 6%, and 7%, respectively.

More notably, U.S. startup Anthropic announced that its AI programming tool can help modernize COBOL, causing IBM’s stock to plunge over 13%. This heightened market concerns.

COBOL is an ancient programming language mainly used on IBM mainframes, often in government and financial institutions requiring high system reliability. Anthropic claims that, with AI, their team can modernize COBOL codebases within a few quarters instead of years.

【U.S. Treasury Bonds】

U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.0330%, and the 2-year yield at 3.4440%, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, NVIDIA rose 0.91%, Apple gained 0.61%, Google Class C fell 1.02%, Class A declined 1.11%, Microsoft dropped 3.21%, Amazon fell 2.30%, TSMC down 0.10%, Meta decreased 2.81%, Tesla declined 2.91%, Seagate Semiconductor fell 1.77%, and Intel dropped 1.09%.

On the news front, OpenAI announced on Monday a long-term partnership called the “Frontier Alliance” with Accenture, Boston Consulting Group, Capgemini, and McKinsey.

Market reports also revealed that ASML’s chief UV source technologist Michael Purvis disclosed they have found a way to increase the EUV light source power from 600W to 1000W.

【Global Indices】

In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped slightly by 0.02% to 10,685 points; France’s CAC 40 fell 0.22% to 8,497; Germany’s DAX declined 1.06% to 24,992.

In Asia, the Hang Seng Index surged 2.53% to 27,082; the China Enterprises Index rose 2.65% to 9,197; the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.12% to 56,826.

【China Indices】

On February 23, overnight, Hang Seng Tech futures rose 3.29%, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.95%.

【Chinese Stocks】

Popular Chinese stocks: Tencent Holdings (HK) up 3.07%, Alibaba down 1.09%, Pinduoduo up 0.78%, NetEase down 1.76%, Baidu down 1.42%, Ctrip down 3.01%, Li Auto up 0.82%, Xpeng down 0.26%, NIO up 4.73%.

【Forex and Commodities】

After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump’s tariff policies, traders reassessed U.S. tariffs. The dollar index consolidated and ultimately fell 0.09% to 97.706.

Tariff uncertainty drove safe-haven demand, pushing spot gold back above $5,200, reaching a three-week high. London gold closed up 1.22% at $5,227 per ounce; spot silver touched $89, with London silver up 1.38% at $88.18 per ounce.

As the U.S. prepares for a third round of nuclear talks with Iran, international oil prices edged lower but remained near six-month highs. WTI crude dipped 0.23% to $66.33 per barrel; Brent crude fell 0.36% to $71.50.

【Key Highlights】

U.S. Customs: Will Cease Collecting Tariffs Declared Unlawful by Supreme Court Starting February 24

On February 22, U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced via its cargo messaging system that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) declared unlawful by the Supreme Court will no longer be in effect. From February 24 Eastern Time, goods entering the U.S. market or being withdrawn from warehouses for consumption will not be subject to these tariffs. The notice also clarified that suspending these tariffs does not affect other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Democrats in Congress Seek to Block Tariff Extensions and Push for Mandatory Refunds

Following the Supreme Court’s reversal of last year’s reciprocal tariffs under IEEPA, Trump invoked Section 122 of an alternative legal framework to impose a 15% global tariff. If Congress does not approve an extension, the new tariffs will expire this summer. The 15% rate was established in trade agreements with the EU and others last year; failure to maintain this level could jeopardize those agreements’ investment commitments. A group of Democratic senators introduced legislation to force refunds of tariffs paid under Trump’s previous increases.

Trump Warns EU of Higher Tariffs for “Playing Tricks”; European Parliament Suspends Trade Agreement Vote

Trump warned that countries attempting to “play tricks” with the Supreme Court ruling would face higher tariffs and more severe consequences. European Parliament’s International Trade Committee Chair Langer stated that delaying the scheduled vote on the agreement, originally set for Tuesday, was to clarify the situation and ensure the U.S. respects the trade deal, which is crucial.

Fed Governor Waller: CEOs Say AI Will Cause Large-Scale Job Cuts; March Rate Decision Depends on February Labor Data

Waller welcomed the positive January employment data but expressed concern about “more noise than signal.” The data’s revisions also showed nearly zero net new jobs in 2025. Whether he will support a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting depends on upcoming labor market data.

Report: ASML Reveals EUV Light Source Breakthrough; Chip Output Could Increase 50% by 2030

Media reports indicate ASML researchers have found a way to significantly boost the power of their key chip manufacturing EUV light sources, potentially increasing chip production by up to 50% by 2030. ASML’s chief EUV source technologist Michael Purvis stated this is not a gimmick or a short-term demonstration but a system capable of sustained 1000W output under real customer conditions.

“June 2028 Research Report”: When AI Surpasses Expectations, the Economy Collapses

A fictional Citrini Research memo describes an “AI prosperity crisis”: by 2028, despite AI productivity surpassing expectations, the disruption of white-collar employment causes an “economic plague.” Corporate profits and computing power expand, but household incomes collapse, choking consumer spending and creating a “ghost GDP.” As SaaS, intermediaries, and financial payment models collapse due to “friction disappearance,” risks propagate from private credit to life insurance and mortgage markets, dragging the global economy into a systemic re-pricing abyss.

Anthropic Claims to Modernize COBOL; IBM Plunges 13%, Largest Drop in 25 Years

Claude Code Security caused a sharp sell-off in cybersecurity stocks. Anthropic announced its ClaudeCode tool can accelerate COBOL modernization, raising concerns about IBM’s mainframe business prospects. IBM’s stock plummeted 13% on Monday, the largest single-day decline in over 25 years, with a 27% drop in February, marking one of the biggest monthly declines in decades.

Novo Nordisk Falls Over 16%; Next-Gen Weight Loss Drug Underperforms Compared to Lilly’s Product

Novo Nordisk dropped 16.43% on Monday after disclosing its next-generation weight loss drug, CagriSema, failed to meet the non-inferiority endpoint compared to Lilly’s Trulicity. Conversely, Lilly’s stock rose 4.86% that day.

OpenAI Signs Long-Term Partnerships with Major Consulting Firms

OpenAI announced on Monday a long-term partnership called the “Frontier Alliance” with Accenture, Boston Consulting Group, Capgemini, and McKinsey. These partners will help clients develop strategies and accelerate deployment of AI agents into operational workflows.