The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until March is 96.0%.

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-24T13:41:57+00:00

CME "Federal Reserve Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 4.0%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 96.0%. By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.3%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 82.1%, with a 0.6% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.8%.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-24 13:41:57

CME “Federal Reserve Watch” shows a 4.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by March, and a 96.0% probability that rates will remain unchanged. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 17.3%, with an 82.1% chance of no change, and a 0.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 46.8%.

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