Galaxy Futures: Strong Non-Farm Employment, Tin Prices Remain Resilient

Non-farm employment remains strong overall, leading the market to cut back on expectations of a rate cut in June. Currently, the first rate cut is expected to be delayed until July. December imports of tin concentrate continued to rise, increasing by 16.81% month-on-month and 119.37% year-on-year. Imports of tin ore from Myanmar decreased by 13.7% month-on-month, with the recovery pace in line with market expectations. In the later first quarter, with mine restoration and dewatering completed, production is expected to accelerate. Yunnan’s 40% tin ore processing fee remains steady at 14,000 yuan per ton, still at a low level. Domestic and international tin ingot inventories continue to accumulate. As the year-end approaches, the market enters a seasonal slowdown in consumption, but after a sharp price correction, downstream procurement has shown some recovery. Currently, most orders are driven by inventory management and previous backlog needs, with limited overall demand recovery—more of a marginal improvement after prolonged high prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to Myanmar’s production resumption and consumption realization pace, while remaining cautious of geopolitical and policy risks. (Galaxy Futures)