Recommendations for U.S. Stocks and Investment Strategies in 2026: Verifying Last Year’s Forecast and Future Directions

Looking back at 2025, the U.S. stock market generally moved as expected. Many investors in U.S. stocks likely realized that AI and the semiconductor industry would truly dominate the market. Now, in 2026, it’s important to systematically review the market trends so far, consider which U.S. stocks to recommend going forward, and evaluate which investment strategies remain effective.

2025 U.S. Stock Market Review: Bright and Dark Spots

Let’s check how accurate the early 2025 forecasts were. Back then, experts believed that expectations of interest rate cuts and growth in the AI industry would be the main drivers of gains. Indeed, the S&P 500 maintained a bullish trend throughout the year, with AI tech stocks playing a leading role.

The assessment that the Federal Reserve’s accommodative stance and solid corporate earnings supported the market’s downside proved correct. However, sector disparities intensified more than anticipated. Some companies in AI and semiconductors accounted for over 80% of the overall market gains, while other industries remained defensive. The financial, consumer goods, and energy sectors underperformed relative to expectations.

The Current U.S. Stock Market: AI and Semiconductors Still Lead

As of 2026, the structure of the U.S. stock market remains asymmetric. Major tech giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple continue to lead the market. NVIDIA maintained a dominant share in data centers in 2025, and Microsoft is expanding its monetization of Copilot, driving earnings growth.

What’s most notable now is that this rally is not just driven by liquidity but is based on real earnings growth. The average ROE (Return on Equity) of S&P 500 companies hit around 18%, the highest in 30 years, and cash flows remain healthy. However, some tech stocks show signs of overheating, so a cautious approach to valuation is necessary.

Notable Sector Trends and Opportunities

Sustained Strength in AI & Semiconductors

AI chip manufacturing and software ecosystems remain the hottest sectors. NVIDIA has solidified its position as the GPU market leader, and AMD continues to expand its market share with the MI series. Microsoft and Alphabet are investing more in developing their own AI chips, boosting cloud competitiveness.

Healthcare Industry Polarization

In pharma, obesity treatments remain key revenue drivers. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk continue steady performance with drugs like Mounjaro and Wegovy, while traditional pharma companies like Pfizer and Merck face sales slowdowns. The faster adoption of AI diagnostic tech is also creating new revenue opportunities.

Clean Energy Sector: Adjustment and Reassessment

Renewable energy companies are sensitive to interest rates and raw material prices. Early 2025 saw increased funding costs causing some difficulties, but technological advances and cost reductions persist. As long as the tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) remain, long-term growth prospects are intact.

Limited Growth in Consumer and Financials

Retail giants like Walmart and Costco maintain strong cash flows, but profit margin improvements are limited. The financial sector faces slow earnings growth due to narrower lending spreads and increased regulation.

Re-evaluating Top U.S. Stock Picks for 2026

Based on current outlook, here are the top 10 U.S. stocks to consider:

Core Leaders

1. NVIDIA – Unmatched leader in AI acceleration chips, with integrated data center and software ecosystems.
2. Microsoft – Monetizing Copilot, strengthening Azure AI customer loyalty.
3. Apple – Accelerating service revenue growth via on-device AI, expanding subscriptions and advertising.
4. Alphabet – Evolving Gemini and recovering YouTube ad revenue; improving AI-driven ad efficiency.
5. Amazon – Improving AWS margins, automating retail, with advertising and Prime Video as new growth drivers.

Secondary Contenders

6. AMD – Gaining presence in AI accelerators; expanding MI series market share to improve data center mix.
7. Meta – Enhancing AI recommendation engines to boost ad efficiency; managing AR/VR costs is key.
8. Tesla – Growth driven by FSD and energy storage; monitoring progress on robotaxi roadmap.

Defensive Growth Stocks

9. Costco – Benefits from stable inflation and deflation of prices; strong cash flow from membership base.
10. UnitedHealth – Benefiting from aging population and growth in Optum’s data and analytics business; watch regulatory news.

Key Criteria for Stock Selection

I want to emphasize four core criteria for choosing good U.S. stocks:

1. Financial Strength

In volatile markets, stability is crucial. NVIDIA and Microsoft hold over $60 billion in cash equivalents, enabling them to buy back shares and pay dividends even amid economic slowdown.

2. Competitive Edge and Barriers to Entry

Companies with high market share and strong technological or brand barriers are less replaceable. NVIDIA’s over 80% GPU market share, combined with its CUDA ecosystem and software, creates a structural advantage and network effects that are hard to replicate quickly.

3. Growth Potential vs. Valuation

High PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) doesn’t always mean overvaluation. Tesla’s 60+ multiple reflects market expectations for new business opportunities like robotaxis and energy storage. Conversely, stocks based on short-term themes with high valuations may see sharp corrections if earnings momentum wanes.

4. Long-term Growth Potential

The global growth focus is narrowing to AI, healthcare, and clean energy. Google continues to grow over 10% annually through Gemini and cloud services, while Apple is increasing software and subscription revenue via on-device AI.

Practical Investment Strategies for 2026–2030

For steady income over the next five years, investors should prioritize consistent asset accumulation rather than market timing.

Diversification via ETFs

Using ETFs remains the most efficient and accessible way to diversify. Combining tech/AI ETFs with dividend, healthcare, and defensive ETFs can reduce individual stock risk and maintain a balanced portfolio. Large asset managers like BlackRock and Vanguard are seeing rapid inflows into their ETFs, reaffirming the importance of long-term diversification.

Regular Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Investing a fixed amount regularly to lower the average purchase price is especially suitable in the volatile 2026 market. JPMorgan Asset Management states that “a consistent 10-year investment in the S&P 500 has less than a 5% chance of loss.” Staying disciplined through short-term fluctuations can generate compound returns.

Risk Management and Rebalancing

Set position limits, use stop-loss orders, and diversify across sectors. During Federal Reserve policy announcements or earnings seasons, reduce positions to manage volatility. Quarterly rebalancing to adjust overextended sectors is vital. In a market dominated by passive ETF flows, rebalancing is one of the most effective risk controls.

Caution with Leverage Products like CFDs

CFDs can be used for short-term hedging but carry significant risk of loss. European regulators report that 70–80% of CFD accounts lose money, and in the U.S., retail CFD trading is prohibited. Even experienced investors must exercise caution and strict risk management.

Conclusion: Investment Outlook Beyond 2026

Ultimately, the current U.S. stock market is in a gradual bull phase. Structural growth driven by AI and earnings, combined with the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy, suggests risk assets will remain attractive. Short-term volatility from tech corrections or geopolitical risks may persist, but stable inflation and solid corporate profits underpin the market.

When investing in U.S. stocks, focusing on financially sound, technologically competitive, and growth-oriented companies is a practical and safe approach. Using ETFs for diversification, regular rebalancing, and disciplined DCA can help build wealth despite short-term fluctuations.

It may not be the perfect time to start investing now, but disciplined, systematic investing from this point will significantly influence your asset growth after 2030.