Is now a good time to buy gold? The truth investors need to know by 2026

Gold prices have surged since October 2023, rising from $2,700 to over $4,000 in just over a year, an increase of more than 45%. Facing this historic rally, both conservative and aggressive investors are asking the same question: Is now a good time to buy gold?

According to the latest Reuters survey, analysts expect the average gold price in 2026 to reach around $4,275. This indicates room for further growth, but the key issue isn’t whether prices will go up, but rather how much they can still rise and whether entering now might result in being trapped at higher levels. This article will analyze from fundamental, technical, and investment tool perspectives to help you determine the optimal timing to buy gold.

The Three Main Drivers Behind Gold Reaching $4,000

Gold itself does not generate interest; its price fluctuations depend entirely on supply and demand. So, what has changed the supply-demand dynamics? Simply put, investor confidence in traditional assets (USD, bonds) is weakening.

First Driver: Global Quantitative Easing Leading to Increased USD Depreciation Risk

Since 2020, the US has implemented unlimited QE, printing money to respond to the pandemic, which has pushed inflation worldwide. Then, in 2022, aggressive rate hikes aimed at controlling domestic prices further reduced global debt levels and eroded trust in the dollar and US Treasuries. Investors are now thinking: instead of holding a continuously printed and depreciating dollar, why not shift to scarce assets like gold? The answer is clear.

Second Driver: Rise of Alternative Assets Creating Competition

Bitcoin broke through $100,000 during the same period, with US President Trump publicly stating Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This means capital flows between gold and cryptocurrencies, while geopolitical risks (Middle East, Ukraine conflicts) persist, increasing demand for safe-haven assets, making gold the preferred choice.

Third Driver: Basel Accord Revisions and Bank Buying Frenzy

This is an often-overlooked but impactful factor. International regulatory rules, under Basel accords, reclassified gold as “Level 1 capital,” on par with cash and government bonds. This incentivizes banks to buy more gold to meet capital adequacy requirements. Compared to the continuously printed paper money, the rising cost of gold extraction makes it inherently more scarce.

Is Now a Good Entry Point? Fundamental Analysis

This is the question most investors want answered. The answer is both “yes” and “no”—it depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, gold still holds value for allocation. As long as these factors persist, gold has support:

• Expectations of continued US rate cuts and dollar weakening
• Unresolved global geopolitical risks
• Central banks continuing to increase gold holdings

However, short-term risks are evident. Gold has already risen from $2,700 to over $4,000, so further upside is limited, and the risk of a correction is rising. More importantly, gold now faces new competitors:

Gold vs. US Treasuries: Although yields have declined, US bonds remain attractive in a rate-cutting cycle. Capital may flow between gold and bonds.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Over the past year, Bitcoin’s gains far outpaced gold, attracting more risk capital. For aggressive investors, cryptocurrencies may be more appealing.

Therefore, the key to judging whether “buying gold now is worthwhile” is: how much volatility are you willing to accept? If you’re conservative, gold remains a more stable choice than Bitcoin. If you’re seeking higher returns, a balanced allocation among gold, bonds, and cryptocurrencies might be necessary.

Technical Analysis: The Best Entry Points, Corrections as Opportunities

From a technical standpoint, gold is still in an upward channel. But that doesn’t mean you should chase the high now.

Using Bollinger Bands, gold prices fluctuate between the upper and lower bands. The best entry point is when the price approaches the lower band, which reduces the chance of being “wrongly caught” at a peak and offers room for a rebound. In other words, wait for a reasonable correction rather than blindly following the trend.

Historically, each new high in gold has been preceded by a short-term pullback. Data shows that entering during a 10-15% correction often yields better long-term costs. So, if you believe in gold’s long-term potential, it’s smarter to wait for a pullback rather than buy at the top.

Comparing Investment Tools: Which Is Most Cost-Effective?

Once you’ve decided to invest in gold, choosing the right instrument is crucial, as costs, risks, and entry barriers vary significantly.

Physical Gold (bars, jewelry):

• Pros: Tangible, psychological satisfaction
• Cons: Wide bid-ask spreads (5-15%), low liquidity, high storage costs, more suitable for central banks than individuals
• Verdict: Not recommended for personal investors

Gold Futures and Options:

• Pros: High liquidity, tight spreads
• Cons: High account opening requirements, margin demands, nonlinear payoff structures making profits complex
• Verdict: Suitable for professional traders, not retail investors

Gold CFDs (Contracts for Difference):

• Pros: Easy trading, no need to roll over contracts, small spreads, low minimum deposit (from $50)
• Cons: Derivative risks require understanding
• Verdict: Most cost-effective for individual investors, supported by platforms like Mitrade with TWD deposits

For most retail investors, gold CFDs offer the lowest costs, highest liquidity, and simplest access. Opening a trade is straightforward: register → deposit → place order, with no complicated procedures.

When Is the Best Time to Buy Gold? Three Golden Rules

Based on the above analysis, here are three principles to judge whether “buying gold now is worthwhile”:

Rule 1: Assess Fundamental Stability As long as quantitative easing, geopolitical risks, and USD depreciation risks remain, gold has medium- to long-term value. It’s unlikely that political forces will drastically alter these factors, making the long-term logic sound.

Rule 2: Wait for Technical Signals Avoid entering at the peak. Wait for Bollinger Band lower band signals or a 10-15% correction, which offers the best entry cost.

Rule 3: Choose the Lowest-Cost Tool Among CFDs, futures, and physical gold, CFDs are the most cost-effective—smallest spreads, lowest barriers, best liquidity.

Final Advice

Is now a good time to buy gold? The answer is: if you’re a long-term investor, gold is worth holding, but now isn’t the optimal entry point. A smarter approach is to set target prices and buy decisively during pullbacks. For different investors:

• Conservative: Gold is a stable asset better than stocks and Bitcoin; consider dollar-cost averaging long-term
• Aggressive: Wait for correction signals, use CFD leverage to enhance capital efficiency
• Balanced: Keep gold at no more than 20% of your total assets, balancing with bonds and cryptocurrencies

The best timing to buy gold is often not during rapid price surges but during market corrections and investor panic. As long as the fundamental logic remains unchanged, gold still has opportunities.