How The Narrative Around Monro (MNRO) Is Shifting With New Growth And Valuation Assumptions

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 8:14 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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Why Monro’s modeled fair value just took a step higher

Monro’s modeled fair value has been lifted from US$20.67 to US$25.63, roughly a 24% rise, as fresh research rolls in with updated assumptions. Behind that shift, analysts have tweaked their revenue growth input from 0.67% to 1.70% and nudged the discount rate from 10.68% to 10.15%. This reflects a different balance of growth potential and required return in the model. Keep reading to see how you can stay on top of these changing assumptions and stay updated on how the story around Monro evolves from here.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Monro.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Fresh research from Oppenheimer, summarized under the title "Monro just upgraded at Oppenheimer, here's why", signals a more constructive stance on the stock. This supports the higher modeled fair value range you saw earlier.

The upgrade points to areas that analysts tend to reward, including execution on the business plan, cost control and overall transparency. They see these as important for supporting the updated assumptions in valuation models.

Even within a more positive view, the tone of the research still acknowledges typical reservations. These include how much upside may already be reflected in the share price and the presence of near term risks around the outlook.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

While Oppenheimer’s action is supportive, the limited available street commentary also hints that some analysts remain cautious. They focus on issues like valuation, the risk that upside is already priced in and ongoing execution risks that could affect how close the stock trades to modeled fair value.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

NasdaqGS:MNRO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

How This Changes the Fair Value For Monro

Fair Value: The target moved from US$20.67 to US$25.63, a rise of about 24% in the modeled estimate.

Discount Rate: The assumed discount rate shifted from 10.68% to 10.15%, a small reduction in the required return used in the model.

Revenue Growth: The revenue growth input moved from 0.67% to 1.70%, indicating a higher projected growth rate in the updated assumptions.

Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption moved from 7.92% to 2.96%, a large cut in expected profitability within the model.

Future P/E: The future P/E multiple increased from 8.7x to 28.0x, a very large uplift in the valuation multiple assumed for the shares.

 






Story Continues  

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect a company’s story to the numbers by linking your view on its business, future revenue, earnings and margins to a fair value estimate. Each Narrative lives on the Community page, ties a forecast to a fair value, compares it to the current share price and then updates automatically when news or earnings arrive, so you can quickly decide whether the valuation still fits your view.

If you want the full context behind Monro’s latest fair value move, follow the original Narrative here: MNRO: Upgraded Street View Will Shape Future P/E Repricing Outlook, where you can keep track of:

How store closures, merchandising changes and digital tools are expected to influence future margins and earnings for Monro.

Why analysts are tying their revenue, margin and P/E assumptions to a fair value of US$25.63, using a 10.15% discount rate.

Which risks around labor costs, traffic trends and tariffs could challenge the earnings and valuation path set out in the Narrative.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include MNRO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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