Bitcoin falls below $63,000, the miner capitulation continues to spread, and $60,000 becomes the last line of defense for the bulls

Under multiple market pressures, Bitcoin has once again fallen below the critical psychological level of $63,000, briefly dropping to $62,704.7 within 24 hours. This decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation but a resonance of on-chain structural pressure and macro fund withdrawal. On-chain data shows that miners have been net sellers for 46 consecutive days, setting the longest surrender record of the year; meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced six consecutive weeks of outflows, indicating a simultaneous decline in institutional demand. As the $60,000 key support level faces renewed testing, the market stands at an important crossroads between bull and bear.

This article will analyze the deeper causes of miner capitulation, changes in institutional fund flows, and, combined with the latest Gate market data, interpret the strategic significance of the $60,000 level and the subsequent market evolution path.

Bitcoin falls below $63,000, miner capitulation hits yearly high

On February 24, 2026, the global cryptocurrency market experienced renewed intense volatility. According to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped -3.72% in the past 24 hours, currently hovering around $63,272, with a low of $62,704.7 within that period. This decline is not just a technical short-term correction but signals a profound structural adjustment in the market.

On-chain analysis indicates that Bitcoin is undergoing its longest miner capitulation wave of the year. Data from Glassnode shows that the net position change of miners has been negative for 46 days straight, marking the longest continuous net selling period this year. Market analysts define this phenomenon as the “surrender phase,” characterized by the accelerated shutdown of old mining equipment and a contraction of total network hash rate.

Miner capitulation phase, source: Glassnode

Deeper reasons lie in the sharp deterioration of miner profitability. Since Bitcoin’s peak of $126,080 in October 2025, the price has been declining, and network transaction fee revenue has shrunk significantly. Data shows that monthly network fees have plummeted from 194 BTC in May 2025 to just 65 BTC in February 2026, meaning miner income has shrunk by nearly two-thirds over the past year. Currently, the average fully incurred cost to produce one Bitcoin across the network is about $87,000, which is 45% above the current market price. This is the first time since the 2022 bear market that such a large-scale “underwater operation” has occurred.

Miner income decline, source: Dune

The “Miner Breakeven Sustainability Index” has fallen to a low of 21, indicating that, apart from a few top operators with extremely low electricity costs and high-efficiency equipment, most miners are in financial distress. In this context, publicly listed mining companies like MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms have recently seen stock declines of over 20%, and industry leaders are accelerating their shift toward artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) to seek survival.

Institutional demand wanes, ETF outflows continue for six weeks

If miner selling reflects supply pressure from the primary market, then the shrinking institutional demand represents a withdrawal of buying power from the secondary market. The two factors together create a double pressure on the current market.

According to SoSo Value data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows, the longest continuous outflow period since these products were launched. Over the past week, total net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached 11,042 BTC, with only two trading days showing slight inflows.

Weak ETF capital flows, source: SoSo Value

Market analyst Axel pointed out that the current capital flow signals a clear negative trend: “Over the past week, ETF channels saw outflows of more than 11,000 BTC, while exchange net flows remained positive, meaning tokens are continuously flowing into trading platforms rather than being withdrawn for long-term custody. Institutional demand has not only failed to absorb the new supply but has become an additional selling pressure source.”

Meanwhile, macroeconomic tightening has worsened market sentiment. Expectations of Fed rate cuts have cooled, and the dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on risk assets. Bloomberg reports that since the market peak in October last year, the total crypto market cap has evaporated about $2 trillion, with some hedge funds shifting to cash, prioritizing “capital preservation” and “flexibility” as key strategies.

The $60,000 support: the ultimate technical and psychological line

Amid multiple negative factors, the $60,000 round number support becomes especially critical. From a technical perspective, a clear head-and-shoulders top pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, with the neckline near $60,000. This means that once the price effectively breaks below this level, the downward trend will be confirmed from a chart pattern standpoint.

BTC structure, source: TradingView

On-chain cost analysis shows that Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $54,700. This price reflects the average purchase cost of all circulating Bitcoins and often provides strong support. Therefore, if $60,000 gives way, the next key buffer zone is around $54,800. This aligns with the theoretical downside target of the head-and-shoulders pattern, which is approximately $54,800.

Bitcoin actual price, source: Glassnode

Gate market analysts emphasize that the market is currently in a “deleveraging tail” and “confidence rebuilding vacuum” phase. In the short term, the main conflict is between ongoing supply pressures (miner and ETF outflows) and the bottom-fishing demand at the $60,000 level.

Bitcoin price analysis, source: TradingView

Bitcoin price forecast and future outlook

Based on Gate’s integrated industry forecast model, despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. As of the latest data on February 24, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) has a market cap of approximately $1.31 trillion, with a market share of 55.37%.

2026 price outlook

It is expected that throughout 2026, Bitcoin’s average price may hover around $65,837.2, with a trading range between $47,402.78 and $67,812.31. Although current prices are near the lower end of this range, excessive market pessimism often creates opportunities for rebounds.

Mid- to long-term forecast

Looking further ahead, with the gradual effects of the halving and the re-emergence of institutional demand, by 2031, Bitcoin could challenge $116,957.38. This represents a potential +47.00% return compared to today’s price.

Key levels and risk warnings

For traders, closely monitoring key price levels is crucial in the current environment. On the Gate platform, we recommend paying attention to the following liquidity nodes:

• Short-term resistance: $67,000 → $68,500 → $69,500
• Critical support/lifeline: $60,000
• Strong support/downside target: $54,800 (if $60,000 breaks)

Risk warnings:

The current high-volatility cycle means that the $66,000 to $60,500 range, due to concentrated liquidation pressure, may create “liquidity gaps,” leading to rapid spikes or sharp declines. Until ETF capital flows show continuous net inflows and exchange net flows turn negative, any rebounds should be approached with caution.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin’s recent drop below $63,000 results from combined miner capitulation and institutional selling. Market sentiment is extremely fragile, but despair often breeds hope. The $60,000 level, as the last line of defense for bulls, will determine the short-term market direction. For long-term investors, current prices are entering a historically critical battleground; closely watch on-chain data for clear right-side entry signals.