Cardano whale dumps $30 million worth of ADA before collapse: On-chain data reveals market disagreement

In February 2026, Cardano (ADA) experienced a rare “bull vs. bear” showdown: on-chain data shows that whale addresses precisely reduced their holdings by 120 million ADA (about $30 million) before the confirmed breakdown of the head and shoulders pattern, successfully avoiding nearly 10% of subsequent declines. Meanwhile, retail addresses saw exchange outflows surge by 640%, exhibiting the classic “buy the dip” behavior.

This extreme divergence—whales exiting while retail investors buy in—often signals that the market has not yet truly bottomed. At the same time, ADA’s price has fallen 27.91% over the past 30 days and is currently hovering around a key level of $0.2572. Technical breakdowns contrast with positive fundamentals (Grayscale’s continuous accumulation, the upcoming launch of Midnight sidechain), leading to a market sentiment stuck in indecision.

Based on Gate market data and on-chain analysis, this report delves into the true drivers behind ADA’s recent decline, the game of cat and mouse between whales and retail investors, and combines technical and long-term price forecasts to reveal the current opportunities and risks for Cardano.

Latest ADA Market Overview

As of February 24, 2026, ADA is priced at $0.2572 on Gate, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.53 million. Its market cap stands at $9.47 billion, accounting for 0.5% of the total crypto market. The price has decreased by 3.27% in the past 24 hours.

Key price data:

• 24-hour high: $0.2754
• 24-hour low: $0.256
• All-time high: $3.09
• All-time low: $0.01925

Over the past 7 days, ADA has declined 10.01%; over 30 days, down 27.91%; and over a year, down 66.56%. Overall market sentiment remains cautious.

Whale Sell-off Details: 120 Million ADA Exited Early

On-chain data indicates that Cardano whales acted ahead of the decline. The largest whale group holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA reduced their holdings from 2.54 billion ADA to 2.42 billion ADA between February 19 and 23, trimming approximately 120 million ADA worth nearly $30 million.

Cardano crash trigger, Source: TradingView

This sell-off occurred before the head and shoulders pattern confirmed a breakdown, suggesting whales preemptively anticipated technical risks. Notably, these whales did not re-enter after the price dropped, indicating a “wait-and-see” stance typical of large funds lacking confidence in a short-term rebound.

Whale continued selling, Source: Santiment

Meanwhile, retail investors actively “bought the dip.” ADA exchange outflows surged from $344,450 on February 21 to $2.55 million on February 23, a 640% increase. This divergence between whales and retail investors is often a warning sign that the market has not yet bottomed.

ADA expenditure, Source: Coinglass

Profitability Indicators and On-Chain Signals: Bottom Not Confirmed

From a profitability perspective, ADA is currently in a risky zone. The total supply profit percentage dropped to 6.06% on February 12 (a three-month low), then slightly rebounded to 8.45%, still far below the extreme panic levels typically seen at market bottoms.

Profitability chart: Santiment

The MVRV ratio has recently fallen sharply, indicating most holders are in an unrealized loss. Historically, when the 30-day MVRV drops below -20%, weak holders tend to exit, creating conditions for a market bottom. Currently, this indicator is still forming a bottom.

Open interest in ADA futures has decreased to about $447 million, with declining trading volume and negative funding rates, reflecting a lack of confidence among leveraged traders. However, the simultaneous decline in open interest and price suggests excessive leverage has been cleared, laying a foundation for a potential rebound.

Technical Analysis: Where Is ADA’s Next Support?

On the 8-hour chart, ADA has confirmed a breakdown of the head and shoulders pattern, a classic trend reversal signal. The price has fallen below the key support at $0.266 and is now hovering around $0.2572.

The Smart Money Index (SMI) shows a divergence between smart money and price action, further confirming whale caution.

ADA Smart Money, Source: TradingView

Key price levels:

• Immediate support: $0.259
• If broken: next target $0.233 (about 12% below current)
• First resistance: $0.276 (reclaiming this level may signal stabilization)
• Reversal confirmation: $0.293 (above this, bearish structure could reverse)

Cardano Price Analysis, Source: TradingView

Fundamental Catalysts: Grayscale Accumulation and Midnight Sidechain

Despite price pressure, Cardano’s fundamentals continue to advance. Grayscale’s smart contract fund has increased ADA’s allocation to 20.34%, marking a continuous upward adjustment since January 2026. ADA is now the fund’s third-largest holding, after Solana and Ethereum.

This ongoing institutional inflow contrasts with retail selling. Due to Grayscale’s rebalancing rules, the increased weight implies passive buying pressure is building.

On the technical upgrade front, Cardano plans its most significant network upgrade since the Alonzo era within the next 45 days. Additionally, the Midnight privacy sidechain is expected to launch by the end of March, designed for regulated environments and supported by giants like Google and Telegram.

In DeFi, Cardano plans to launch USDCx stablecoin and integrate LayerZero cross-chain protocol, connecting over 140 blockchain networks. These initiatives aim to address long-standing liquidity issues, though market response depends on actual adoption data.

ADA Price Forecast 2026–2031

Based on current market data and technical analysis, the projected ADA prices over the next few years are:

Forecast notes:

• 2026: ADA expected to fluctuate between $0.1388 and $0.2957, averaging $0.2572, roughly in line with current levels.
• 2031: potential peak around $0.4376, representing a +63% return from current prices.

These projections are based on current network development pace, market share, and macroeconomic assumptions; actual prices may deviate significantly due to technological, regulatory, or competitive factors.

Conclusion and Risk Warning

Cardano is at a critical crossroads: on-chain data shows whales preemptively reduced holdings before the crash and have yet to re-enter, while retail investors are actively buying the dip; technicals indicate a breakdown of the head and shoulders pattern, yet fundamentals include institutional accumulation and upcoming upgrades.

In the short term, ADA may continue to test support around $0.233. Investors should be cautious of “buying the dip halfway up the mountain.” Long-term factors like Grayscale’s holdings, Midnight sidechain launch, and DeFi ecosystem expansion offer potential upside.

Risk warnings:

• Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; ADA prices can fluctuate sharply.
• Technical upgrades or delays may impact market confidence.
• Regulatory changes could introduce uncertainties for Cardano’s ecosystem.
• Compared to competitors like Ethereum and Solana, Cardano’s dApp ecosystem remains relatively underdeveloped.

Investors should conduct independent research aligned with their risk tolerance before making decisions. Gate will continue to monitor and report on ADA and other crypto assets.