Is IONQ Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings? Options Traders Brace for 13.6% Price Swing

Quantum Computing firm IonQ Inc. IONQ -3.51% ▼ will report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results after market close on Wednesday, February 25. Analysts expect a smaller loss compared to last year and a big jump in quarterly sales, driven by new deals and its competitive lead in quantum tech. IonQ is also buying SkyWater Technology SKYT -1.35% ▼ for $1.8 billion, combining quantum systems with domestic chip manufacturing.

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In October 2025, IonQ became the first quantum computing company to achieve 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelities, a milestone advancing fault-tolerant computing that no rival has matched.

IONQ Faces Short Seller Allegations

Over the past three months alone, IONQ shares have declined nearly 32% amid new short seller allegations on accounting practices. On February 4, Wolfpack Research alleged that IonQ lost its funding for vital Pentagon contracts, which provided up to 86% of its revenue from 2022-2024.

While the company has rejected such claims, investors will seek further clarity on the matter because this is the third time a short seller report has emerged over the past two years.

Expectations from IONQ

The Street expects IonQ to report an adjusted loss of $0.51 per share, much lower than the prior-year period’s loss of $0.93 per share. Sales are forecast to surge nearly 245% year-over-year to $40.38 million. It is worth noting that IonQ has surpassed earnings expectations in only three of the past eight quarters.

According to TipRanks’ Options Traders Tool, options traders expect about a 13.57% move in either direction for IONQ stock in reaction to Q4 results. This implied move is significantly higher than the stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 3.98% over the past four quarters.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of Results

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Troy Jensen reiterated his Buy rating and $70 price target, implying 119.4% upside potential. He highlighted IonQ’s potential for over 150% year-over-year revenue growth, calling it “mostly inorganic, but impressive” from targeted acquisitions. He forecasts $185 million in 2026 revenue, excluding the SkyWater Technology deal and leadership optimism.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake views the recent dip in IONQ as a buying opportunity, dismissing the short report for lack of substance. He maintained a Buy rating and $100 price target, implying an impressive 228.6% upside potential. He stressed IonQ’s execution on its quantum roadmap as key, predicting strong stock returns through 2030 if it delivers high-fidelity logical qubits. Key milestones include launching a 256-physical-qubit system in 2026, scaling electronic qubit control beyond that, and expanding the UK supply chain via Oxford Ionics for compliance and US for equipment.

Is IONQ a Good Stock to Buy?

On TipRanks, IonQ has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on seven Buys and three Hold ratings. The average IonQ price target of $75.63 implies 137% upside potential from current levels.

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