“What are they hiding?” NBS, where is Capital Importation Data?

“What are they hiding?” It is not a question any statistical agency should invite.

Yet that is exactly where we are, nine months after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last released capital importation data.

The NBS has not published capital importation figures for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025.

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That is unprecedented in recent years, and a sharp break from a publication cycle investors have come to rely upon.

The last release, covering Q1 2025, showed total capital importation of $5.64 billion, with roughly $4.2 billion flowing into the money market. Since then, silence.

That silence is awkward because government officials have not been silent at all. In fact, they have been rather enthusiastic.

The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, recently stated that Nigeria recorded approximately $21 billion in capital importation in the first ten months of 2025.

According to her, that compares with about $12 billion in 2024 and under $4 billion in 2023. That is not a marginal improvement; it is a headline.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, had earlier made a similar claim in November. He declared that foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first ten months of 2025.

He described it as a 70 per cent increase over total inflows for 2024 and a remarkable 428 per cent surge compared to the $3.9 billion recorded in 2023.

The message was clear and deliberate: investor confidence has returned.

If these numbers exist, then the underlying data must exist as well. Capital importation figures do not materialize from thin air.

They are compiled, disaggregated, and analyzed before anyone confidently cites them on a public stage. Which raises the obvious question: why has the NBS not published the quarterly breakdowns?

Capital importation data is not decorative; it is foundational to economic decision making. Investors, analysts, and policymakers use it to gauge the quality and durability of foreign inflows.

A dollar that enters the money market is not the same as a dollar that builds a factory. Portfolio investment can be helpful, but it can also exit as quickly as it arrived.

Foreign direct investment, by contrast, tends to anchor itself in bricks, mortar, and payrolls.

Nigeria has long struggled with the latter. Data shows that the highest level of foreign direct investment Nigeria attracted in recent history was about $2.2 billion in 2014.

In 2024, the country attracted just $674 million in FDI. In the first quarter of 2025, FDI stood at a modest $126 million. These numbers are not catastrophic, but they are not transformative either.

That is precisely why the composition of the reported $20–21 billion matters.

If the bulk of the inflow is portfolio capital chasing yield in a high-interest-rate environment, then the story is one of opportunistic flows rather than structural confidence.

If, however, a significant share represents genuine direct investment into productive sectors, then we may indeed be witnessing a turning point.

Without the official NBS breakdown, the public is left with aggregate figures and optimistic commentary.

That is not how credible economic communication should function.

Transparency is not a courtesy in modern markets; it is an obligation. When data is delayed without explanation, speculation fills the gap with remarkable efficiency.

Are they hiding something? Perhaps not. Data compilation can face technical delays, inter-agency coordination challenges, or revisions that require careful reconciliation.

Statistical processes are rarely glamorous and often painstaking. Yet silence without explanation creates its own narrative, and it is rarely flattering.

The irony is that if the numbers are as strong as advertised, prompt publication would amplify the government’s reform narrative.

It would validate claims of renewed investor confidence and demonstrate that recent macroeconomic adjustments are bearing fruit.

Delayed publication, by contrast, invites suspicion that the details may not align neatly with the headlines.

Investors do not merely watch the numbers; they also watch the process. Consistency in data release builds institutional credibility over time.

Inconsistent release erodes it, even if the underlying figures are positive. Markets have long memories, and confidence is built slowly but lost quickly.

Nigeria is at a delicate moment in its economic reform journey.

Exchange rate adjustments, subsidy removals, and monetary tightening have all been defended as necessary steps toward stability.

For those policies to command sustained domestic and international support, transparency must be non-negotiable.

Should we be worried? Concern is reasonable, but panic is premature. The more productive response is to demand clarity. If there are delays, explain them.

If there are revisions underway, communicate the timeline.

In the absence of such clarity, the narrative becomes one of opacity rather than progress. The NBS has, over the years, built a reputation for relatively consistent statistical reporting. Protecting that credibility should be a priority, not an afterthought.

Because in the court of public opinion, unanswered questions grow louder with time.

And when citizens, analysts, and investors start asking, “What are they hiding?”, the real risk is not what the data might show.

The real risk is that trust, once strained, becomes far harder to restore.

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