Xiuzhenxw Path to Freedom - 2026 No Loss

1. Forty and Not Confused

After the Spring Festival in 2017, I turned over forty and entered the age of not being confused. How should “not confused at forty” be understood? During these days of the Spring Festival, I kept pondering this question. Before forty, I thought that being not confused meant having no doubts, being able to find answers to everything. But when I actually reached the age of not being confused, I realized it was not so; many questions I still haven’t figured out. “Not confused at forty” might be more about reconciliation:

Inner reconciliation with oneself—accepting oneself, embracing ordinariness. Accepting that one cannot choose their original family, accepting that oneself is a common person, accepting that children may have ordinary talents.

For oneself, live and learn lifelong. For children, “lower expectations, give up on returns. Enjoy the process, accept the results.” For others, do not attempt futile changes.

Externally, know what is worth pursuing, discern right from wrong—things related to values of right and wrong. Do what you should, refrain from what you shouldn’t.

Doing what you should means that “doing the right thing” is more important than “doing things right.”
What is the right thing? I didn’t quite understand before, until I watched a video of Zhang Yongping last year. It seemed I understood a bit—it’s about integrity, rationality, and thinking long-term.

If you do something wrong, it’s okay; just correct it next time. Understand that correcting mistakes requires effort, but any effort is the minimal effort.

Having a “not doing” list to perfect oneself—Munger said, if I knew where I would die, I would never go there. Think about what’s on your list of things not to do.

2. Investment Returns Over the Years

2017 70%
2018 -17%
2019 57%
2020 33%
2021 -24%
2022 -8%
2023 -9%
2024 9%
2025 28%

Since recording, the capital has fluctuated, with an annualized return of just over 10%. Before 2023, the main holdings were in large-cap blue chips, with heavy path dependence and large drawdowns. I’ve experienced Vanke A, Midea Real Estate, China Aoyuan… Fortunately, I strictly adhered to the rule of position limits, avoiding total destruction. In 2020, I studied extensively the classic case of value investing in Evergrande, as detailed in “Value Investment Classic Cases of China Evergrande.” When an industry enters a downturn, many industry influencers disappear. Stock picking is extremely difficult; all companies eventually end in extinction. The original 20 Dow Jones components, only General Electric survives today.

The capital markets are filled with experts, and a 10% return is already satisfying. I hope to keep surviving.

3. Current Portfolio Strategy

In 2024, I read “Not Losing Money” by Zishui and the IPO duo, which yielded many insights. I set a goal: no losses this year. Due to my work nature, I rarely watch the market and trade infrequently. Current positions and strategies are as follows:

1. Long-term holdings of large-cap blue chips like Tencent
2. Holding broad-based ETFs, dividend ETFs, consumer and healthcare ETFs
3. Conditional orders for convertible bonds to “whack moles”

Each of these strategies accounts for about one-third. In 2026, I plan to gradually increase the convertible bond positions. Although current convertible bonds are at high levels, compared to individual stocks, their downside is very clear, and they are much more user-friendly.

From an asset allocation perspective, if A-shares are overheated, allocate 3%-5% to NASDAQ 100 positions.

Currently considering opening a stock index futures account, learning to roll IC/IM strategies to capture discounts. A new skill for losing money?

A good memory is not as good as a bad pen; I’ve started a new thread on Jisilu to record daily thoughts.