The four major variables resonating during the Spring Festival long holiday, which ones are positive catalysts for the A-shares?

Cailian Press, February 24 — (Reporter Gao Yanyun) The Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, and during the holiday period, global markets experienced several major events.

The four key events impacting the market during the holiday include: the Trump tariff turmoil, CCTV’s “Robot + AI Technology Spring Festival Gala,” the yuan’s strong appreciation to the 6.89 range, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, industry highlights such as “the total box office of the 2026 Spring Festival film season surpassing 5 billion yuan” will also serve as positive catalysts for related A-share sectors.

In response to these major variables affecting the market, sell-side research institutions are highly attentive. Data from Jinmen APP shows that from February 22 to March 1, a total of 25 sell-side research strategy roadshow meetings were held, covering 14 securities firms, including Orient Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Guolian Minsheng Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Industrial Securities, Eastmoney, Galaxy Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, Zhongtai Securities, CITIC Securities, Caitong Securities, Changjiang Securities, and Guohai Securities. Among them, Changjiang Securities held as many as 9 strategy research meetings, accounting for 36% of all roadshows.

Trump Tariff Turmoil: Policy Fluctuations Increase Market Uncertainty

During the holiday, the US tariff policy saw intensive adjustments, with the Trump tariff turmoil experiencing ups and downs.

On February 20, U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s tariffs imposed under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) were unconstitutional.

On the same day, Trump signed an executive order invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, introducing a temporary 10% import tariff as an alternative measure, effective February 24 Eastern Time. The order also clarified some exempted goods, including key minerals, energy products, certain agricultural products, and medicines.

On February 21, Trump further stated plans to raise this additional tariff rate from 10% to 15%, though the specific implementation details are still pending formal documentation.

Regarding the impact of these adjustments on China, brokerage firms have provided clear interpretations.

Ruo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Director of Research at Yuekai Securities, stated in a research report that China’s average tariff rate might temporarily decrease by 5 percentage points, with trade negotiations still in a long-term tug-of-war. For China, the key is to continuously strengthen its economic fundamentals and enhance technological自主创新能力, maintaining strategic resolve amid complex international changes to effectively reduce external uncertainties and gain an advantage in the long-term US-China trade tug-of-war.

Huatai Securities’ Chief Macroeconomist Yi Huan provided a more specific estimate: China’s tariffs against other countries could decrease by 34 percentage points; if the US further raises temporary tariffs on the top 10 deficit sources to 15%, China’s tariffs could decrease by 29 percentage points. Looking ahead, US tariff policies remain uncertain—there is a possibility that the Trump administration might use Section 338 or conduct further tariffs through Section 301 or 201 investigations. Regarding tariffs on China, it is expected that after Trump’s visit to China in late March or early April, the tariffs may become clearer.

Yi Huan believes that the Trump tariff turmoil will not end there; future tariff policies still have uncertainties, and mechanisms and volumes related to the refund of already collected tariffs remain unresolved.

Spring Festival Gala Catalyst: Humanoid Robot Industry Reaches Attention Peak

At the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, several domestically produced humanoid robots made stunning appearances, showcasing the technological strength of China’s humanoid robot field through diverse performances. The related enthusiasm quickly spread to the capital markets. On February 20, related stocks in Hong Kong’s stock market surged in advance, reflecting industry good news.

Guotai Haitong Research believes that the Spring Festival Gala has a significant catalytic effect on the humanoid robot industry, with industry capital maintaining high attention levels. The industrialization of humanoid robots is approaching, with core technologies and supporting产业链持续完善.

Everbright Securities further analyzed in their research report that multiple robot-related programs during the Gala demonstrated significant improvements in high-precision motion control, deep development of embodied large models, and bionic interaction capabilities of humanoid robots. Mass production of humanoid robots is expected to accelerate in 2026, supported by a series of targeted and small-batch orders within the industry chain, presenting investment opportunities in leading, certain stocks. The continuous AI application catalysis during the Spring Festival increases demand for AI computing power, with rapid penetration of liquid cooling, and as chip power consumption rises, microchannel cold plates further enhance value. AI servers are advancing to higher levels, with ongoing evolution in advanced packaging.

Yuan Exchange Rate: Mainly Passive Appreciation, Short-term Upside Still Possible

In the foreign exchange market, the yuan appreciated strongly during the holiday. On February 21, offshore RMB (CNH) against the US dollar was quoted at 6.8978, up 24 points from the previous New York close, with trading within the range of 6.9065-6.8960, officially entering the 6.89 range.

Market consensus holds that yuan appreciation will provide positive support to the stock, bond, and forex markets, further highlighting the value of Chinese assets.

Regarding the drivers of appreciation, Caitong Securities’ research report clearly states that the main reason for the yuan’s appreciation is the weakness of the US dollar, not the strength of the yuan. This round of yuan appreciation is mainly passive, driven by the continued weakening of the dollar. Additionally, the concentrated release of foreign exchange settlement demand after September 2025 has also accelerated the yuan’s appreciation.

As for the extreme value range of the yuan, Caitong Securities estimates that the USD/CNY exchange rate could reach 6.8. Under the baseline scenario of a weakening dollar, yuan appreciation is a long-term certainty. Calculations suggest that by 2026, the USD/CNY could reach an extreme of 6.8. Moreover, trading behaviors driven by corporate unhedged pressures may push the USD/CNY below this extreme. Although the People’s Bank of China has increased tolerance for exchange rate flexibility, it will not allow the yuan to appreciate unilaterally and rapidly.

Middle East Tensions: Geopolitical Risks Boost Safe-Haven Asset Demand

Besides the above three major news items, new developments in Middle East tensions during the Spring Festival holiday have become short-term uncertainties affecting the markets. During the holiday, US military naval and air forces continued to gather in the Middle East, applying pressure on Iran to push for progress in US-Iran negotiations. Geopolitical tensions escalated, directly driving international oil prices higher.

In the capital markets, on February 20, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) shares rose 3.7%, reflecting the positive impact of rising oil prices in advance.

Market views generally believe that Middle East tensions are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. If US-Iran negotiations do not progress as expected, geopolitical risks could further escalate, favoring short-term gains in gold, oil, and energy sectors, which are likely to see a rally.

Sell-side: Long-term Optimism for “Systematic Slow Bull”

Based on the long holiday news, many brokerages have provided clear judgments on the post-holiday A-share market trend and allocation strategies, generally adopting a view of “short-term strong oscillation, long-term cautious optimism,” and are broadly optimistic about a “systematic slow bull” opportunity.

Tianfeng Securities’ research report believes that the pursuit of Equity Race Point 2.0 will not be easy, with inevitable setbacks. It expects policy continuity and stability, increased flexibility and predictability, focusing on “Four Stabilizations.” It emphasizes gold and highlights convertible bonds in bonds.

Hua Jin Securities, through a review of historical trends, indicates that A-shares are likely to rise after the holiday. The spring market may continue, with A-shares oscillating mildly upward. Technology growth and cyclical industries may perform relatively better, and it is advisable to continue low-cost allocation to these sectors after the holiday.

Fangzheng Securities’ report analyzes from a fundamental support perspective, noting that with ongoing fiscal support and industrial policies in emerging and future industries, combined with strong Spring Festival consumption and accelerated infrastructure projects at the start of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the market has fundamental support. Profit growth for listed companies in 2026 is expected to improve significantly. Future allocations should focus on the “14th Five-Year” strategic priorities (new industries, future industries), with moderate overweighting of pro-cyclical assets to balance the portfolio.

Industrial Securities offers a technical outlook, maintaining a cautiously optimistic signal based on timing models. Specifically, the models have shifted the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices to cautious optimism, with overall upward probability indicators at reasonable levels. The model maintains a cautious signal for the CSI 300 index. Overall, the models suggest a cautiously optimistic market stance.

Liao Jingchi, Chief Global Strategist at Zheshang Securities, provides a more specific short-term outlook, estimating a low probability of trend-based opportunities at the market open post-holiday, with a tendency toward mild oscillation in the medium term. Opportunities are likely in sectors with overseas exposure, such as AI applications and robotics related to the Spring Festival Gala. From a quarterly perspective, a “systematic slow bull” remains favorable.

In terms of allocation, based on the judgment of “mixed long and short, strong oscillation, hold and observe,” Liao Jingchi recommends short-term cautious positioning, waiting for opportunities, and maintaining a “systematic slow bull” mindset for medium-term holdings. Sector-wise, focus on relatively low-valued securities, such as securities, building materials, and banks, while short-term attention should be on AI applications and robotics. For individual stocks, prioritize those lagging since the “924 market” rally, with potential for catch-up and the ability to stay above the annual moving average.

Additionally, the explosive box office during the Spring Festival has become a highlight for brokerages. As of 6 pm on February 22, the total box office (including pre-sales) for the 2026 Spring Festival season exceeded 5 billion yuan, with “Flying Past Life 3” leading in revenue, benefiting related listed film companies. A-shares involved in producing or distributing Spring Festival films are expected to see short-term positive support.

Many brokerages note that the steady performance of Spring Festival box office highlights the recovery trend of the film industry, recommending focus on high-quality core producers, distributors, and leading cinema companies.