I have been watching Lighter very closely and the deeper I go, the stronger my conviction becomes that $LIT still feels early relative to where this ecosystem could be heading.

Right now $LIT sits around a 1.4B FDV while Hyperliquid's $HYPE trades closer to a 30B FDV. I am not saying Lighter will replace Hyperliquid or suddenly dominate the space, but the valuation gap between a fast growing perp infrastructure play and the current market pricing feels too wide to ignore. Even a conservative re rating from here starts to look interesting.
What stands out most is how quickly supply has tightened. More than half of $LIT circulating supply is already staked on LLP, leaving a much smaller liquid float. At the same time, the protocol has been aggressively using real revenue for buybacks, directly linking platform usage with token demand. Volume holding strong even after the farming phase cooled down tells me the activity is not purely hype driven.
Since the circulating current market cap is only about $300M, even a small wave of buying can push the price faster than people expect. Yes, Lighter's supply is light enough that strong momentum can move $LIT very quickly.
Another reason I am confident is because I am personally using the platform. I am actively trading on @Lighter_xyz , partly because of the free trading experience and also because having a proper iOS app while still being a decentralized perps DEX is a huge win for usability. I prefer buying and promoting things I actually use myself. If I am using it daily and the experience feels solid, that says more to me than any marketing narrative.
I will also be honest about something that initially made me hesitant. The team’s tone, especially Vladimir’s, felt bold to the point of arrogance when I first saw him openly challenge much larger players. But after digging deeper into his background and the way the product is being executed, my perspective shifted. Confidence backed by execution hits differently. There are very few builders where that level of conviction feels earned, and he seems to be one of them. In simple words, there are very few people in the world that arrogance actually suits, and @vnovakovski seems to be one of them.
What makes it even more interesting to me is that big investors like Pieter Thiel came in around a $1.5B valuation, and today we are basically able to buy around or even below that range. Getting in near VC levels while the product is still growing feels like a huge bonus.
From a product standpoint the direction looks strong. Fast execution, competitive trading costs, unified collateral design, growing market maker presence, and expansion plans that could push revenue far beyond current levels if they keep delivering.
Personally I see asymmetric upside here. I am positioning for a minimum of 2x to 5x move from current $1.4 levels with my longer term target sitting around $10, and I will keep stacking while the market still prices it this low. Once the broader market structure turns healthy again, I strongly believe Lighter has the ingredients to be among the protocols that lead the next major move.
Not financial advice. Just sharing my current thesis after spending serious time studying the numbers and actually using the product myself.