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A conspiracy theory about gold.$XAUT
Why did gold plummet? Actually, it's because when gold exceeded $5300, its total market value surpassed that of all U.S. Treasuries, triggering a systemic sell-off. People are pondering one question: Will gold become so large that it is "not allowed to continue absorbing global safe-haven funds"?
In the current system: Gold ≈ Non-sovereign, non-credit, zero-yield assets U.S. Treasuries ≈ The world's largest and most core risk-free asset anchor Once the market value of gold structurally surpasses that of Treasuries, it’s no longer a market issue but a financial order issue.
The role of Treasuries is to: Provide the largest, interest-bearing, collateralizable, tradable asset pool for global funds, absorb global savings, and maintain the dollar cycle. If gold becomes more "valuable" than Treasuries, it means the global safe-haven funds have completely abandoned the credit system, and the dollar anchor is being drained.
This is an unsustainable state in non-extreme financial collapses. Therefore, once gold’s market value approaches that of Treasuries, Treasuries will definitely "expand" to push gold back down.
What does it mean if gold prices continue to rise sharply after $5300? It indicates that the market no longer trusts Treasuries, the dollar, or any sovereign credit.
This is not a "Gold Bull Market 2.0," but rather a "Global Financial Order Reset."
In such a scenario: stocks would have already collapsed, the bond market would be disordered, capital controls and financial freezes would occur first.
You might not be able to "sell gold smoothly."
So, in a "normal world line," the market is more likely to trade around $5300 repeatedly rather than continuously soaring.
Gold can rise, but not to the point where it replaces Treasuries as the world's top safe asset; once gold’s valuation threatens the dollar system in terms of size, it’s not a buy signal but a liquidation signal.