📌 Early morning * Latest price (2026-02-20 00:30)

- BTC/USD: $66,836 (24 hours -1.17%)

- Range: $65,907–$68,328

- Retracement from the October 2025 high of $126,223: 47%

📉 Short-term trend (1–4 weeks)

Trend: Weak oscillation, downside risks remain

- Technical: Lost the key level of $70,000, short-term support at $65,000 and $60,000; resistance at $70,000–$72,000

- Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear)

- Capital: US spot BTC ETF continues to see net outflows (nearly $4 billion over 3 months)

- Leverage: Frequent liquidations, easily forming a “decline → liquidation → further decline” cycle

🔍 Core driving factors

1. Macro suppression (main reason)

- Fed rate cut expectations cooling, US dollar liquidity tightening

- Highly correlated with US tech stocks, weakness in software sector dragging down the coin price

2. Institutional retreat

- Continuous outflow of spot ETF funds, weak buying pressure

- Miner breakeven line around $74,300, current price triggers selling pressure

3. Regulation and confidence

- Increasing uncertainty in US crypto regulation

- Safe-haven attribute discredited (declines during geopolitical conflicts instead of rising)

🧭 Mid-term outlook (1–3 months)

- Baseline scenario: Volatile bottoming, range $55,000–$75,000

- Bearish trigger: Break below $60,000 → target $50,000–$52,000

- Bullish trigger: Fed turns dovish, ETF funds flow back, regulation clarifies

⚠️ Risk warning

- High volatility, high leverage, strict regulatory environment, do not constitute investment advice

- Short-term rebounds are prone to panic selling, high risk of chasing the top