Russia's substantial oil supply threatened by India's trade reorientation

DeFiDoctor · 2026-02-14T16:12:38+00:00

Analysts warn that if India halts Russian oil purchases, Russia could face isolation in the global energy market. A trade agreement between the US and India may reshape energy dynamics, with India poised to reduce Russian oil imports. This transition poses significant challenges for Russia in finding alternative buyers.

DeFiDoctor

2026-02-14 16:12:38

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Norwegian financial group DNB analysts sound the alarm: if India halts its purchases of Russian oil, Moscow risks becoming isolated in the global energy market with substantial volumes to sell. This situation reveals increasing geopolitical tensions surrounding energy exchanges among major powers.

A trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi reshapes energy balances

According to Jin10, negotiations between the United States and India would result in a significant reduction of U.S. tariffs, lowered to 18% on Indian imports. In return, New Delhi has reportedly agreed to gradually cease its supply of Russian hydrocarbons. This arrangement illustrates how trade policies are becoming tools of pressure in geopolitical competition.

The substantial stakes of Indian oil flows

Kpler data, a global leader in maritime transport analysis, paints an eloquent picture of this issue. In December, India’s daily crude oil imports stood at 1.36 million barrels per day, representing a significant portion of the country’s energy supply. This substantial volume explains India’s strategic importance in the Russian supply chain.

Major challenges of redirecting oil exports

The potential loss of the Indian market would pose a significant challenge for Russia: finding alternative buyers to sell large quantities of oil. While Western sanctions already restrict access to traditional markets, this possible defection by India could worsen Russia’s difficulties. The Russian energy sector will need to explore alternative strategies to maintain its oil exports in the medium term.

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