Short-term shocks do indeed exist.

When jobs are replaced and income becomes unstable, consumption contracts, corporate profits come under pressure, and investment slows down, which can easily trigger a chain reaction. Throughout history, every technological leap has gone through this kind of pain, such as during the First Industrial Revolution when machines replaced manual labor, causing intense upheaval.
But the long-term logic is often different.
The core driver of economic growth has never been “how many people are employed,” but rather “how much value can be created per unit of resources.” Productivity is the fundamental variable. AI reduces some manual jobs but significantly enhances overall production capacity. Society’s “output capability” has not disappeared; it has been amplified.
The past cycle was:
Most people work → Earn income → Engage in widespread consumption.
The future may gradually shift to:
Those who master AI and capital → Achieve higher returns → Determine investment and consumption directions.
This does not mean consumption will disappear, but rather that the structure of consumption and income distribution will change.
On one hand, wealth may become more concentrated among capital and technology holders, who will continue to consume and reinvest. On the other hand, AI systems themselves will generate new huge demands—computing power, energy, chips, data infrastructure… these will form new industry chains and spending.
So the economy may not come to a halt, but its form could be reconstructed. The growth engine shifts from “broad employment-driven” to “technology efficiency + capital-driven.”
What is truly worth being cautious about is not “lack of demand,” but rather the over-concentration of demand and income. If the distribution structure becomes unbalanced to the point that it affects social stability, that would be a systemic risk. Before that happens, those who control the means of production often enjoy the benefits of efficiency.
In other words, rather than using old logic to analyze new technology, it’s more practical to ask a more realistic question:
In this new mode of production, where is your position?
Instead of worrying “whether the economy will collapse,” it’s better to think “can I participate in creating new value?” This may be more important than macro-level judgments.
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