#BTC (As of 2026-02-13 23:00, CPI has been released, combined with Jin10 data and market reactions)

1. Tonight's Key Data (Jin10)

- US January CPI: Year-over-year 2.5% (Expected 2.5%, Previous 2.7%); Month-over-month 0.3% (Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.3%)
- Core CPI: Year-over-year 2.5% (Expected 2.5%, Previous 2.6%); Month-over-month 0.3% (Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.2%)
- Conclusion: Fully in line with expectations, no hawk/dove surprises

2. Impact on BTC (Macro + Technical)

1. Macro Perspective (Bearish/Volatile)

- Data meets expectations, rate cut expectations remain since July, no early adjustment
- US Treasury yields slightly down, US dollar index weakens, but the impact is limited, providing limited bullishness for BTC
- Combined with strong non-farm payrolls earlier, Coinbase earnings below expectations, ETF continuous net outflows, institutional target price reductions, overall sentiment remains bearish

2. Technical Perspective (Oversold + Key Support)

- Current Price: ~66,000 USD
- Support: 58,000–60,000 (200-week moving average); Resistance: 68,000–70,000
- Daily RSI ≈ 15 (deeply oversold), indicating a rebound demand; but the trend remains weak
- Open interest in futures contracts hits a new low since November 2024, liquidity is insufficient, volatility is amplified

3. Tonight's Probable Short-term Outlook

- Direction: Volatile with a bearish bias, limited rebound space
- Logic:
- CPI surprises are absent, unable to reverse the macro pressure of delayed rate cuts
- Oversold conditions bring a slight rebound (67,000–68,000), but breaking 70,000 is difficult
- If it falls below 65,000 → 63,000 → 60,000, further selling pressure will be triggered
- Conclusion: Tonight leans more towards “volatile with a weak bias, rebounds face resistance,” rather than a straightforward bullish trend

4. Key Short-term Levels

- Bullish Conditions: Hold above 68,000 with increased volume, targeting 70,000–72,000
- Bearish Conditions: Break below 65,000, targeting 63,000 → 60,000