Is Bitcoin dropping below $60,000 just the beginning? After reviewing the 15-year cycle, the real golden opportunity is here.

From the high of 126,000 in October last year to the current 60,000, a 52% decline has caused many to panic. But I went back to review the past 15-year cycle and found that the current bottoming might still be catching a falling knife.
Let's first talk about the shock absorption law of a bear market.
Historically, the maximum decline in Bitcoin bear markets has been decreasing. 94% (2011), 87% (2015), 84% (2018), 77% (2022). Institutional entry has reduced volatility. Assuming a decrease of 5-7% per cycle, the limit decline in this bear market is likely between 65% and 72%.
Based on this assumption, there are three price levels worth paying attention to:
$44,000 (65% decline), where you can start to take a light position.
The logic here is that ETF institutions' bottom support levels can be used to make the first bottom position.
$35,000-$38,000 (70-72% decline), which is the most consistent with historical mathematical patterns. When reaching this range, buy in batches without hesitation. The turnaround opportunity is right here.
<$30,000 (75%+ decline), which is the extreme scavenging zone. If MicroStrategy gets liquidated or a regulatory black swan occurs, this becomes bloodied chips. You can save a little last capital to pick up the pieces.
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