Forwarded: Have the lows been seen? Will there be a rebound during the Spring Festival? Are the altcoins worth bottom-fishing for a rebound?

BTC is basically in a confirmed bear market now. When it previously rebounded to 98,000, some still looked for a new all-time high, referencing the super cycle. Currently, those voices have mostly disappeared. I emphasized earlier that the first wave of this bear market saw BTC drop from 116,000 to 80,000, then a rebound from 80,000 to 98,000, which has been repeatedly highlighted and is now meeting expectations.
The second wave of decline saw BTC fall from 98,000 to 60,000, and it’s now rebounded to around 70,000 and is consolidating sideways.
According to normal bear market patterns, the 60,000 level for BTC’s second wave decline is already in place. The short-term trend is mainly a rebound, with resistance levels around 75,000 and 80,000. Of course, this rebound won’t happen overnight. Looking back at BTC’s rebound from 80,000 to 98,000, it fluctuated between 86,000 and 92,000 for a while before finally reaching our target of 98,000. So, a rebound from 60,000 to 70,000, with some consolidation, is normal. If it retraces to the 66,000–67,000 range later, small positions can be added for long entries, with stop-losses managed personally. The targets above are 72,000 and 75,000. That’s my short-term outlook for BTC.
Let’s also look at ETH’s trend. One of the three major bearish bulls, Yili Hu, has already given up. Currently, ETH’s short-term correction seems to be complete, with a rebound around 2,100. Personally, I think ETH’s movements are often unpredictable. I mainly follow BTC’s trend and then decide when to enter long or short on ETH, because ETH is highly correlated with BTC and doesn’t have an independent trend.
In the short term, ETH’s resistance is around 2,300, and a retracement to about 1,900 can be used to go long, with a stop-loss at 1,860.
SOL has dropped into double digits, which probably seemed unimaginable last year. The bull-bear cycle in crypto is so fast that risk management is crucial. Currently, SOL’s on-chain activity has decreased significantly compared to the bull market, but fundamentally, SOL remains one of the top-tier blockchains in the crypto market. I personally believe that once SOL drops to around 50, it can start a gradual accumulation for the next bear market. Many still hope SOL will fall to single digits like last time, but that’s unlikely. The last bear market was caused by FTX’s collapse, which dragged SOL down. This time, SOL doesn’t have such major negative news.
Short-term support for SOL is around 75–80, so keep an eye on this level.
In summary, the short-term market has mostly bottomed out, with rebounds expected. After the rebound, a third wave of decline may begin, and this bear market should be nearing its end.
Having analyzed BTC, ETH, and SOL—the three main cryptocurrencies—let’s look at which altcoins are worth short-term trading for rebounds.
When BTC rebounded from 80,000 to 98,000, I summarized some altcoins that tend to rebound strongly after each sharp decline, mainly in the MEME, AI, and DeFi sectors. To sum up: for MEME, choose Pepe; for AI, choose TAO VIRTUAL; for DeFi, choose PENDLE.
These altcoins have all rebounded from their lows. When to enter? I think it’s better to look at BTC rather than specific altcoin levels, because currently, altcoins don’t have independent trends and are still in a bear market, heavily influenced by BTC. It’s safer to wait until BTC retraces to the 65,000–68,000 range before entering these rebound plays.
Regarding fan tokens, CHZ has fallen sharply, reaching a low of 0.034, and has now rebounded to 0.042. SANTOS has been relatively resilient. My view remains the same as before.
The ideal entry point for bottom-fishing fan tokens is CHZ at 0.04 and SANTOS at 2 or 1.8. Currently, both have reached these levels and entered positions successfully. I plan to hold these tokens until May.
That’s my short-term market analysis. The market’s movement is a continuous cycle. Set your alarm: during a bear market, dollar-cost average into Bitcoin, hold for three years, and then just wait to cash out. Making money is that simple—most people just don’t want to believe it.
The crypto bear market is ongoing. There are 243 days left until the end of this cycle.
I hope you’ll follow me to get through this tough bear market. When the next bull run arrives, I hope we’re both ready.
#当前行情抄底还是观望？