My overall assessment:

• Next 1-4 weeks: Most likely still sideways with a slight downward bias, with 70,000-75,000 possibly being the short-term center of gravity. Only if it quickly stabilizes above 78k-80k and shows clear signs of a short-term rally should we consider a significant upward move; otherwise, it may test lower levels (below 65k or even 60k).
• Extreme scenario: If macro conditions suddenly turn bullish (for example, if the Federal Reserve signals dovishness) or large capital inflows occur, the spot market could lead a rebound, potentially rising 10-20% quickly. But currently, there are no strong catalysts.
• Sentiment is already very panicked (the Fear and Greed Index should be very low), making shorting risky and long positions prone to being trapped.
One sentence summary: Don’t expect a big rally in the short term. Holding above 68k-70k is a temporary victory. If you are a short-term trader, it’s better to wait for clearer signals; if you are a long-term holder, the current level is already much cheaper than the high points, and volatility is just noise.
No one can predict the short-term crypto market with 100% certainty. Risk is on you—manage your funds well and set stop-loss/take-profit levels. If you want more specific strategies or opinions on certain price levels, we can discuss further.