#btc Historically, when BTC halves, it usually rebounds to 36%-42% of the total decline. 126164-59902, 36%(83756), 38%(85081), 42%(87732). 83756 is also the 0.618 retracement level of this downward wave rebound. If the Spring Festival rebound rally starts, then the highest rebound for BTC this time is locked between 83,000 and 88,000. Currently, the rebound is first facing resistance at the daily EMA7 and the 0.382 retracement level. That is between 72,700 and 74,220. After this super-deep correction rebound from the halving is complete, another halving drop could bring us close to the bottom of the bear market cycle.

Rebound to 83,000-88,000, the bottom would drop to 45,000-42,000. Rebound to 78,000-83,000, the bottom would drop to 42,000-39,000. It’s important to note that the retracement level of 0.786 in this bull market is at 38,774, which aligns with the final bottom at 39,000.