2026.2.6

Today’s fear index has dropped to 9, which can be said to be the lowest in history. The market is in a state of panic, showing extreme fear. The MACD divergence rate has reached -3000. Compared to the last time the price dropped to $80,000, when the divergence was over -1000, it is three times larger. In the short term, the indicator will gradually correct itself.
An interesting point is the Bitcoin holding addresses. Around January 24th, the number of addresses holding the top 100 addresses decreased from 50 million to 1.37 million, while the holding proportion increased from 15% to 88%. Subsequently, the price continued to decline. One reason is the very credible tariff war negative news, and secondly, the deliberate release of Epstein’s 3 million pages of black history involving high-ranking U.S. officials, which provided a big negative catalyst. Now there is a new change: the number of holding addresses has increased back to 50 million, but the proportion held by the top 100 addresses has sharply dropped to 5%. Bitcoin has now fallen to $60,000. What will happen next? Will it continue to decline or stabilize sideways?
I believe this is a very obvious washout behavior by institutions. They will likely trade sideways around 50,000 to 70,000, for a short period of 2-3 months, or a longer period of 6-8 months. Why do I say this? By comparing holding data, we can analyze that on January 24th, they collected all the chips. They must have known the upcoming market trend, then deliberately released news about tariffs and Epstein. It’s important to note that Epstein’s case has been under investigation for many months. Releasing this news at this time is a deliberate move to stimulate negative sentiment, causing the price to slide smoothly downward. Profit-taking traders then distribute chips during this opportunity. So far, institutions no longer hold chips. When the market drops further, they will slowly collect chips again. Monitoring the proportion of holding addresses will reveal what they are up to.
As retail investors, our job is to buy the dip with half a position now, observe the trend of sideways movement, and if there are two or three more dips to the 50,000 level, we can go all-in. Then, pay attention to ETF capital inflows, market liquidity changes, Federal Reserve rate cuts, non-farm payroll data, central bank policies, and other news developments.