If the US stock market is used as an anchor, where will Bitcoin fall?

1. Short-term anchor point: $70,000 (psychological and technical support)
Currently, Bitcoin is in a life-and-death battle around the $70,000 threshold.
* Correlation logic: When US stocks (especially the Nasdaq) experience adjustments, Bitcoin is often the first to be sold off as a "high beta" risk asset. If the S&P 500 begins to devalue, institutions and quantitative funds tend to sell liquidity-rich Bitcoin, causing it to break through key psychological levels.
2. Mid-term target: $65,000 - $55,000 ("bloodbath" bottom)
If the valuation normalization process of US stocks is accompanied by tightening liquidity (e.g., a hawkish Federal Reserve), Bitcoin will face deeper corrections.
* Technical support:
* 200-week moving average: This is a long-term "value anchor." Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is around $68,400. If the price falls below this, the market will enter an "oversold" and "panic" state.
3. Extreme scenario: fall below $55,000 (liquidity exhaustion)
If the valuation normalization of the S&P 500 evolves into a "credit event" (not just valuation devaluation, but corporate earnings collapse or recession), Bitcoin may lose its safe-haven status as "digital gold" and become purely a liquidity sell-off target.
Summary: Bitcoin decline path projection table
Decline stage Price range (USD) Market state Corresponding US stock scenario
Stage 1 ~70,000 Breakout and panic The S&P 500 is just beginning to devalue, funds tentatively retreat from risk assets.
Stage 2 65,000 - 68,000 Technical support test Battle near the 200-week moving average; if US stocks continue to fall, support will fail.
Stage 3 55,000 - 58,000 Value bottom / bottom-fishing zone Extreme panic, but close to long-term cost zone. This is the most likely area to stop the decline.
Extreme case <55,000 Faith collapse Deep correction or recession in US stocks, liquidity fully exhausted.
With the valuation normalization of the S&P 500 (rationalization), Bitcoin is very likely to fall into the $55,000 - $65,000 range to find final support. Around $58,000 is a highly valuable "golden pit," as it corresponds to Bitcoin’s long-term average cost (200-week line and realized price)#当前行情抄底还是观望？