On February 2, 2026, after a significant decline, the market continued downward. My psychological support level for Bitcoin is 70,000, and Ethereum remains at $2000. During the previous sideways trading phase, I believed there was a high probability of a rebound or even a second high point, which would be the best opportunity for us to sell. However, looking at the current situation, even with sharp declines, the probability of a short-term trend reversal to the upside is very low.

The upcoming trend mainly has two major risk points. The first is Bitcoin's four-year cycle. From a timing perspective, the current bull market peak has already passed. If the next phase follows the four-year cycle, based on past experience, the 2026 market will be very poor, likely continuing to make new lows during the oscillation process. Every time there's a frenzy in a bull market, people tend to find various reasons to convince themselves that Bitcoin will be in an eternal bull run, or they break the four-year cycle law. Currently, it is clear that the inherent cycle dominates.

The second risk point is the macroeconomic environment. Precious metals like gold and silver have just experienced a peak rally, with international capital aggressively harvesting during this opportunity. The most concerning aspect is the U.S. stock market, because it hasn't fallen much yet, but the entire financial environment has become so turbulent. It's hard to imagine what will happen once the macro-financial environment deteriorates. Where will cryptocurrencies go?

Actually, today I initially planned to boost everyone's confidence, but I think it's necessary to objectively discuss the current situation. Boosting confidence is suitable for those who are already heavily invested or trapped. An objective analysis helps everyone manage their positions and mindset in the coming period.