#BTC Key Observation Indicators and Rebound/Continuation Signals from February 1, 2026, 2:00 to February 3, 2026, 2:00, for quick assessment. Data refreshes every 4-8 hours is ideal.

1. Core Indicators and Signals

1. Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows (Daily/Intraday)

- Rebound: Net inflow ≥ $500 million in a single day, two consecutive increases, funds shift to allocation

- Continuation of decline: Net outflow ≥ $500 million in a single day, two consecutive reductions, institutions withdraw from risk assets

2. CME Futures Open Interest (Hourly)

- Rebound: Open interest stops falling and rebounds, >$18 billion, leveraged longs cover

- Continuation of decline: Open interest continues to decline, < $16 billion, leveraged funds accelerate exit

3. US Dollar Index DXY (Hourly)

- Rebound: DXY falls below 103.5, interest rate cut expectations recover, risk asset preference rises

- Continuation of decline: DXY rises above 104.5, dollar strengthens, funds flow out of the crypto market

4. 24-hour Liquidation Amount (Hourly)

- Rebound: Liquidation < $100 million, clearing pressure eases, panic cools down

- Continuation of decline: Liquidation > $500 million, leveraged chain liquidations, selling pressure continues

5. Key Price Levels (Minute)

- Support: 78,000 (short-term), 80,000 (mid-term), 84,000 (strong support)

- Resistance: 82,000 (short-term), 88,000 (mid-term), 90,000 (strong resistance)

- Rebound: Quickly recover above 82,000 and stabilize, fill the gap

- Continuation of decline: Break below 78,000 with increased volume, test 75,000

6. On-chain and Sentiment (Hourly/Daily)

- Rebound: LTH NUPL > 0.6, long-term holders stop selling; Fear & Greed Index < 20 then rebounds

- Continuation of decline: LTH NUPL < 0.5, long-term holders sell; Fear & Greed Index < 15 and continues to decline

7. Funding Rate (Hourly)

- Rebound: Funding rate turns positive from negative, > 0.01%, bullish confidence recovers

- Continuation of decline: Funding rate remains negative, <-0.02%, bears dominate the market

2. Signal Combination Judgment

- Rebound: ETF net inflow + open interest rebound + DXY decline + liquidation convergence + stabilize above 82,000

- Continuation of decline: ETF net outflow + open interest decline + DXY rise + liquidation expansion + break below 78,000

3. Quick Operation Suggestions

- Rebound: Prioritize resistance at 88,000, reduce positions in batches; look for 90,000 after breakthrough

- Continuation of decline: Hold above 78,000 with light positions to attempt long; if broken, observe and wait for stabilization signals near 75,000